【作者】 黄神佑；

【导师】 伍世代；

【作者基本信息】 福建师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 本文通过分析我国房地产业的发展情况，指出房地产预警对于对房地产业健康发展具有重要的意义。首先，根据房地产周期波动理论、可持续发展理论和预测理论构建城市房地产预警体系；对预警界限和指标权重的确定方法进行了重点研究。接着，本文采用了物元分析法和综合评分法对房地产业警度的判定进行建模，并对两种方法的评判结果进行了比较，结果表明物元分析法对房地产业警度的判定精度更高。最后，采用GM(1，1)模型对城市房地产警情进行预测和分析。本文以福州市为例，开展实证研究。预警结果与福州市房地产发展的实际情况基本吻合，表明本项研究所建立的房地产预警模型有效可行，理论分析充分，实用价值较高，可以为指导和调控房地产市场提供科学的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Through analysis on the development of the real estate in our country,this paper points out the significance of real estate early-warning to the healthy development of the real estate.First, based on the Real Estate Cycle Theory, the Sustainable Development Theory and the Predicting Theory, this paper establishes the real estate early warning modle and studies the boundary and the weight of early-warning indices. Secondly,this article sets up two models to the comprehensive evaluation on the of the real estate early warning by means of the Index method and matter element analysis.At the same time,compared the two modles, matter element analysis is the better method of the comprehensive evaluation.At last,This paper makes pre-warning of the real estate by GM(1,1) Modle.The result of the demonstrative analys is in accordance with the real estate development in Fuzhou,this indicates that the real early-warning modle establishing in the research is feasible,with full theory analysis and good practical value ,provides scientific foundation for guiding and controlling the real estate markets.更多还原