我国上市公司财务预警实证研究

【作者】 张海君；

【导师】 陈艳；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 会计学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的飞速发展，经济领域中的复杂性、不确定性日益凸显，证券市场上所面临的风险更是瞬息万变，上市公司由于财务风险处理不当陷入财务困境导致破产倒闭的情形越来越多，致使广大投资者损失惨重，那么，怎样才能清楚的了解上市公司的实际情况，在其发生财务困境之前就能有所警觉，及时采取措施，避免或减少投资者因投资不善所带来的损失，就成为广大投资者所关注的话题。 从企业的经营发展过程来看，绝大多数企业危机的出现都经历了一个渐进的过程，而这个过程又从企业财务状况的恶化中体现出来，所以通过对企业财务状况的预测，有利于投资者认清投资对象的本来面目，在财务预警的各种方法中利用各种具有代表性的财务指标建立模型进行预警是一种较为有效的预警方法，通过预测对被投资对象的财务状况及早做出判断，以便及时采取措施，防患于未然。本文正是基于这种想法，运用实证分析的方法，通过建立财务预警模型对上市公司财务状况进行预测希望通过本文的研究能对广大投资者的投资有所裨益。 本文包括四部分： 第一部分介绍了财务预警的基本理论。从风险角度出发指出财务风险、财务困境与财务预警之间存在的内在的联系，指出财务预警的功能和理论基础。 第二部分对国内外上市公司财务预警研究的现状进行回顾和比较，指出国外研究成果对我国在此领域研究的启示。 第三部分介绍了财务预警定性和定量研究方法及各种方法各自的适用性。同时，指出在模型建立过程中模型样本的确定；模型中基本指标和模型具体利用指标的确定。 第四部分为实证研究部分，分别利用单变量分析方法和多变量分析方法建立模型检验出模型的预测能力并运用模型进行实例分析。最后，总结实证研究的研究成果，指出实证研究中存在的问题及对模型的进一步改进措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of our economy at very fast speed, complexity and uncertainty in economic area are increasingly prominent, and the risks existing in securities business are changing dramatically. In this situation, the cases of list companies being in hot water or even going bankrupt are more and more because of the bad handling of financial risk. Therefore, it becomes a topic people concerned that how to be alert to the financial distress before it happens and how to take actions to avoid or reduce the losses which financial risks caused.Through the enterprise finance condition forecast, it will help the investor clearly recognize the truth of investment object. So, trough various the financial index that has representative establishment, it is a kind of relatively effective advance warning method that model carries out advance warning, through forecast as making judgement quickly by the financial statement of investment object, in order to adopt measure in time, prevent trouble before it happens. Just based on this thought, the paper illustrates the financial status in financial prediction model.There are four parts in the paper.The first part introduces basic theory of financial advance warning. It points out financial risk, financial difficult condition and financial advance warning and their inner connection from risk angle. It also points theoretical foundation and the function of financial advance warning.The second part points out the inspiration of foreign study to our study in this field after making a review and comparison of the present status of list companies home and abroad.The third part introduces qualitative and the quantitative research method of the financial early warning and their own respective serviceability. Meantime, it points out how to determine the sample. And basic index and specific index used in the model establishment process.更多还原