【作者】 吴风平；

【导师】 王立； 赵玉红；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 本篇论文根据我国目前水资源状况及水利工程运行状况,反思了为什么我国水利工程国民经济评价中有时存在失真和时效性差的问题,从而引出了本文对国民经济评价的研究和探讨,提出了解决国民经济评价中诸多问题的具体可行的措施和方法,建立了综合经济评价指标体系及评价模型,并依托西部开发重大攻关项目“宁夏经济生态系统合理配置研究”的第六专题“宁夏经济生态系统广义水资源合理配置”,利用宁夏地区的相关联水利工程对本文所建立的综合经济评价指标体系和评价模型进行了应用和验证。本文是对现有国民经济评价方法的补充和完善,所做主要工作如下:1、解决相关联工程项目间“外部效应”的问题。本文针对当前国民经济评价中存在的不足,首先通过引入《建设项目经济评价方法与参数》(第二版)中“联合体”概念,采取适当扩大项目范围的方法,把若干相关联项目作为一个整体。所谓“联合体”即是把若干相关联项目作为一个整体、一个包含若干子项的“大项目”,这个大项目就被称为“联合体”。然后再运用概率原理,对“联合体”项目进行国民经济分析。这样做不仅能使很多“外部效应”内部化,并且对于那些不能内部化的“外部效应”还可以将其置于现金流中进行总体的量化分析。2、解决了在不具备概率分析条件的情况下量化项目抵抗风险能力的问题。本文另辟蹊径,通过对大量敏感性分析数据的分析,归纳出在同等浮动幅度的条件下,不确定性分析中存在着“一致性”的规律;然后再通过演绎的方法,引入一个崭新的变量——经济内部收益率扰动参数Φ来代表项目抵抗风险能力大小。3、建立了基于实数编码加速遗传算法(RAGA)的投影寻踪模型(PPC)。本文通过比较投影寻踪法(PP)相对于模糊综合评判法(Fuzzy)、层次分析法(AHP)的优势之后,选用了基于实数编码加速遗传算法(RAGA)的投影寻踪模型(PPC)作为综合经济评价模型。4、解决了如何将水资源配置模型与国民经济评价模型有效地结合起来的问题。本文采用了系数修正法。通过计算设计规模、设计引水量与预测规模、预测引水量之比,作为修正系数,来对效益——费用分析中的实际发生现金流进行修正调整,从而达到修正国民经济评价指标的目的。5、以宁夏水利工程为例,对基于水资源配置的工程方案,运用投影寻踪模型进行了综合经济评价,在实践中对模型进行了应用与论证。本文理论与实际工程相结合,具有很强的现实意义,对本工程及类似工程更多还原

【Abstract】 At the beginning of this thesis according to our country’s water resources and hydraulic engineering management condition at present, the author have reconsidered why the problem of distortion and timeliness in appraising the country economy of hydraulic engineering is surviving in our country. Thus educe the research and the discussion about appraising the country economy, put forward many feasible methods and proposal, and has established the synthesis economic evaluation system and the appraisal model. This thesis is based on the sixth special topic "The reasonable water resources disposition in Ningxia economical ecosystem "of the western significant project " Research on the reasonable water resources disposition of Ningxia economical ecosystem", and has carried on the application and the confirmation for the synthesis economic evaluation system and the appraisal model by Ningxia’s correlative hydraulic engineering projects. The thesis is a supplement and consummation to the method of national economy appraisal at the present. The main productions in this thesis are as follow:1.Resolved the problem of "exterior effect" among the correlative engineering projects. The first, through citing the concept of "consortium" in "Method And Parameter Of Construction Project’s economic evaluation "( Second edition), adopts the method expanding project scope suitably, the author makes national economy evaluation by regarding several correlative projects as a whole, as a big project the big project is also call "consortium". Then the author makes national economy evaluation by using the principle of probability. So we not only can change many exterior effects into interior effects, but also can put them into the cash flow to carries on the overall the quantification analysis to some exterior effects that cannot be changed into interior effects.2.Resolved the problem of quantifying project’s ability of resisting risk in the condition that cannot carry on the probability analysis. through adopting a new method and analyzing massive sensitive analysis data, This thesis induces the“uniformity”rule in the uncertainty analysis under the same fluctuation scope condition, Then through the deductive, cites a new variable named fluctuation index of EIRRΦto represent the project’s ability of resisting risk.更多还原