【作者】 余旸；

【导师】 翟东升；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 我国制造业面临着许多困难,如企业效益不佳,库存居高不下等。其中原因众多,而众多原因中较为突出也容易被忽略的是企业往往缺乏有效的供应链不确定性管理。因此,如何管理与控制供应链的不确定性,对其产生机理与控制进行深入系统的研究对我国制造业实施供应链管理模式、提升国际竞争力意义重大。基于此,本文对供应链的研究重点放在如何管理与控制供应链的不确定性,对其产生的机理与控制进行深入建模和仿真研究。由于供应链是由不同单元构成的复杂系统,涉及社会、人、组织、技术等诸多方面,对于供应链不确定性问题研究复杂。本文在国内外相关研究经验和成果基础上,结合敏捷网络化制造、提升制造企业核心能力和网络化制造资源集成的制造环境,从技术和战略两个层面对供应链不确定性的机理进行系统分析和研究,在运行模式方面,提出基于复杂自适应系统范式供应链运作模式与策略、供应链不确定性产生机理的概念模型,并在此基础上,剖析供应链不确定性影响并讨论相应控制机制。同时,构建了基于Multi-Agent的供应链不确定性的仿真与分析平台。更多还原

【Abstract】 The manufacturing industry of our country is facing many problems, such as the low benefit in the enterprises and overstock. Among the various reasons, which is prominent and always vulnerable to be neglected is that the enterprises often lack the effective management in uncertain supply chain. Therefore, uncertain supply chain management is important for implement supply chain management pattern and enhancing the international competition power of our country’s manufacturing industry. We consider how to manage and control the question of uncertain in supply chain and its mechanism.The supply chain is a complex system of the society, human, organization, technology and so on, therefore,It is very difficult to analyze the question of uncertain in supply chain. We integrates agile network manufacture, the promotion of manufacture enterprise’s core capability and the manufacture environment integrated by the network manufacture resources, study the question of uncertain in supply chain from the technology and the strategic aspects. In the aspect of supply chain operate mode, We proposes the complex self-adaptive system model and strategy and conceptual model of the question of uncertain in supply chain. Furthermore,we analyzes the influence of the question of uncertain in supply chain and discusses corresponding control mechanism. Meanwhile, we construct a simulation platform based on Multi-Agent for the question of uncertain in supply chain.更多还原