【作者】 解建华；

【导师】 陈艳艳；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 交通事故的发生具有很强的随机性。本文通过对一个区域内的事故数据和流量、速度数据进行分析,发现区域内轻微事故的发生频率受交通流量大小的影响较大,而造成人员伤亡的一般事故和重大事故则受流量影响较小,受速度及其它因素影响较多。当道路交通流量增加的时候,机动车增多、发生事故的驾驶员也增多,事故发生的机率变大,事故数自然也会相应增多。因此目前还没有更有效措施可以降低因流量增加而导致事故多发这一现象,只能去尽力改善道路基础设施的状况、提高相应的安全标准,给驾驶员一定的“容错空间”。对于造成人员伤亡的一般事故和重大事故,其发生的随机性虽然很强,且往往并非发生在流量的高峰时段,事故地点也具有很强的不确定性,但是这种类型的事故并非完全无章可依,依据大样本统计原理,我们通过对事故数据本身的分析研究,主要是对事故发生的形态和原因进行统计分析,发现非机动车和行人与机动车之间的事故往往会造成较大的伤亡。通过对一些交叉口进行调查,将交通流量数据与事故数据进行对比,发现交叉口的非机动车和行人流量达到一定规模时,就会给交叉口的安全水平带来很大的威胁,行人和非机动车的秩序管理应该作为交叉口安全改善的重点。因此本文的研究目标为:找到造成人员伤亡的严重事故的形态、原因等规律和其他交叉口安全问题的症结,为交叉口安全评价提供数据支持,为相应的安全改善措施提供依据。目前我国对道路安全的重视程度还远不及道路建设,本篇文章的目的也在于为政策制定和工程改造决策者提供有力的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is stochastic that there will be an accident. By the correlative analysis of the crash data, traffic flow and speed data of an area, traffic flow is found to be the most important variable to decide the crash frequence without casualty. But injured and fatal accidents frequency is more influenced by speed and some other factors like psychology of drivers than traffic flow. It is reasonable that when the traffic flow increases the vehicles and drivers, as while as the possibility of accident risk will be increasing. Concequently, it is not easy to solve the safety problem with traffic low increasing, but just to improve the traffic infrastructure and the design criterion to give more chance for road users who made mistake. That is the forgive space of design. The stastistic data tells us injured and fatal crashes are with high randomicity, and they always do not happen at time with high traffic vollume, of some specific intersecitons. But when we analyze the crash data of reason and manner, we find that the injured and fatal ratios are high in the kind of accident between pedestrian, bycicle and motor vehicle. After the survey and comparison of some specific intersections, it is also found that the vollume of pedestrian and bycicle during the intersection area play an important role in deciding the level of an interseciton. So when we decide to improve the safety situation of an intersection we should pay more attention to the organization of pedestrian and bycicle. So our research aim is: To find the rules and problems of the manner and resaon of injured and fatal accidents, which are going to be the principle of interseciton safety improvement. Now there is no more national consciousness about the road safety than the road construction. So this paper will be also provided to the policy makers and the designers of improvement projects.更多还原