【作者】 冯治恒；

【导师】 石为人； 梁山；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 系统工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 经济决策是政府信息化的核心内容,地方宏观经济信息管理、预测预警系统的目标是为政府把握经济发展趋势、预见经济发展潜在问题、辅助经济决策提供基础支撑,提高政府的经济决策水平。目前,我国已经建立了全国范围的宏观经济监测预警系统,很多行业以及区域已经建立了自己的监测预测系统。重庆目前已成立了经济信息中心,在全市宏观经济监测预测方面做了大量的研究,取得了比较丰富的成果。本文研究分析了重庆市南岸区宏观经济运行特点和规律,对宏观经济进行预测,判断宏观经济发展趋势,为南岸区政府分析财宏观经济行状况提供相应的统计数据,为宏观经济管理部门决策提供数据依据。本文以复杂系统的方法论为指导,采取定性和定量分析相结合的方法研究地方宏观经济信息管理,预测预警系统,并从模型和指标的角度对宏观经济进行研究,筛选出合理反映南岸区经济运行态势的主要指标进行预测,对比分析了国内外的主要经济预测算法。主要研究工作及成果概括如下:①综述了地方宏观经济预测的发展概况、理论研究和应用现状以及存在的问题,在此基础上提出了本文的研究目的意义和基本思路。②恰当地选择指标并编制指标体系,正确评价当前宏观经济运行的状态,而且还能准确预测未来的发展趋势并及时反映宏观经济调控效果。针对南岸区地方宏观经济的的特点,选择预测主要指标,建立预测指标体系。③针对宏观经济预测具有非线性、历史数据不完备性等特点,分析比较几种预测算法各自的特点和适用范围,提出结合原始数据的变化规律来有效分析地方经济运行情况的思想,并运用灰色模型以及回归模型完成对宏观经济主要指标的预测。利用SQL存储过程编写预测模型程序,通过Delphi应用程序访问和操纵服务器上的存储过程实现对大量预测数据高效快速的运算。④阐述了宏观经济微观模型的特点、结构形式和建模方法,提出建立基于主体的宏观经济微观模拟模型,作为现实经济的“显微镜”和“望远镜”基于主体的宏观经济微观模拟模型暗示着大规模的经济模拟实验可以在低成本下完成。⑤研究地方宏观经经济信息管理,预测预警系统的功能需求,实现该系统的系统结构、软件组成和核心模块的设计。更多还原

【Abstract】 Economy decision-making is government information core content ,the target of district macroeconomy information management forecast and warning system is grasped the trend of economy development, forecast the latency problem of economydevelopment,assistant economy decision-making provide foundation support, enhance government’s economy decision-making level.At present,our country has established macro-economy forecast and warning system around the countrywide,the city of chongqing has established the center of economic information. a mass of research in macro-economy forecast and warning have been done, and obtained abundance production.This dissertation regards methodology of the complicated system as guidelines, researches on the macroeconomy information management forecast and warning system with qualitative and quantitative analysis. In this dissertation, proceeding from the angles of the model and index, the main macroeconomy index and macroeconomy trend predicting based on grey model and regression model, and a microsimulation model of the economy are studied.The framework and research fruits are listed as follows:①The dissertation begins with a overview of district macroeconomy information management forecast and warning system. Current situation of theoretic research and application is reviewed. At the same time, the objective and scheme are proposed based on this.②Select and weave correctly index system. Evaluate accurately the macroeconomy situation, and forecast exactly macroeconomy development in future. Reflect the effect ofmacro-economics cortrol and adjust in good time. Choose mostly predict index, establish the predict index system.③District macroeconomy forecast has some behavior characters, such as non-linear and insufficient data. After analysing and comparing several kinds of predicting algorithms, we predict the main macroeconomy index by grey model and regress model. According to seek the change rules through the arrangement of initial data, we can analyse the current situation of local economy, and offer the corresponding statistics data for decision-making.④The characteristic, structure form and modeling method of the macro-economy更多还原