【作者】 陈杰远；

【导师】 赵刚；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 机械制造及其自动化， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 本文提出了一种通过资源竞争的智能决策方法和形式建立森林火灾扑救智能决策支持系统的理论。根据这一理论，开发了该系统的核心部分火灾扑救智能决策模块，并通过仿真实验检验了该模块的可行性。 文章对森林火灾扑救智能决策支持系统的整体结构做了规划，采用了火情信息采集、火行为预测、火灾扑救智能决策、用户界面显示、数据总库五大核心模块并行工作的模式，完成了系统的整体布局。本文对资源竞争的决策方法进行了研究，同时采用了这种决策方法作为本系统的决策机制，使火灾扑救智能决策模块能够在有限的灭火资源条件下完成最佳的灭火方案决策。在决策结果的评价方面，本文综合了灭火时间、过火面积、火灾损失等各方面因素，提出了一套评价体系，并建立了决策结果评价模型应用于决策模块之中。在系统搭建方面，文章建立了数据计算、防火道构筑、灭火进程、人机交互等多种模型，以此完善整个决策系统。最后，依据各部分的理论开发了一套仿真系统，利用仿真实验的数据结果对系统的可行性作一检验。 本课题的研究和开发，将为灭火指挥员做出决策提供重要的依据。此种决策思想将会在扑救森林火灾过程中发挥其应有的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper puts forward one kind of theory which sets up the forest fire suppression intelligent decision and support system by the resource competition intelligent decision method and form. Basing this theory, open out this system hardcore of the fire extermination intelligent decision module, and check up the feasibility of this module by the emulator experimentation.The paper marks out the whole structure of the forest fire suppression intelligent decision and support system, and consummates the whole layout. The forest fire suppression intelligent decision and support system consists of five core modules which use parallel work style. These are fire information collection, fire action prediction, fire suppression intelligent decision, user interface and database. After investigating the decision method based on resource competition, the paper adopts the method which enables the intelligent decision module to decide the optimal fire suppression method when the fire suppression resources are limited. Considering of fire suppression time, fire area, fire loss and so on, the paper introduces a series of estimation system, founds estimation model of decision result. To consummate the forest fire suppression intelligent decision and support system, the paper sets up several models such as calculation, firebreak build, fire suppression process and man-machine conversation. Finally, a simulation system is designed. The feasible of the proposed system is demonstrated by the simulation results.The system will provide important information to the fire suppression commander, and play an important role in the process of forest fire suppression.更多还原