【作者】 许其功；

【导师】 刘鸿亮；

【作者基本信息】 中国环境科学研究院 ， 环境科学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 三峡水库建成后，长江三峡库区江段的水文形势、水质状况将会发生很大的变化。特别是随着库区经济的发展，污染物排放量有进一步增加的趋势，将对水环境产生很大的影响。如何保证三峡工程建成后能最大限度地发挥其社会、经济及环境效益、实现三峡库区的可持续发展，确保三峡库区的水环境安全，成为急待解决的重大问题。 本文提出了基于有限单元法的复杂河流二维随机预测模型，运用Monte Carlo法计算得到了三峡水库建成后水质的概率分布，为三峡库区的管理与发展提供了较为全面丰富的信息。由于污染物在水流中的扩散迁移过程受水温、局部流速与流向、河道形状等因素的影响。因此，排污口下游处任一点的污染物浓度值是一个波动变化的量，而不是一个恒定值。显然，要精确地描述这种波动与变化，必须依赖随机水质模型的建立。为了精确地描述与模拟水库建成后长江干流的水质变化趋势，建立二维随机水质模型对三峡水库建成后的水质变化趋势进行模拟。 三峡库区生态环境现状较差，水污染问题突出，仅仅靠简单的末端治理方法，已经很难从根本上解决三峡库区的水污染问题。因此，本文从可持续发展的原则出发，以三峡库区的水环境安全为重点，在宏观管理的角度上提出了库区水质控制的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir, great changes of the flow and quality situation of water will happen in ChangJiang segment of Three Gorges Reservoir area. Especially, with the development of economy in Three Gorges Reservoir area, there is an increasing trend in discharge of pollutants, greatly affecting the water quality environment. How to ensure the Three Gorges Reservoir realize its social, economic, environmental benefits and the safety of water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, becomes an important problem to be solved.The paper brings forward the two dimensional stochastic model for water quality prediction and gets the probability distribution of water quality after the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir, providing more information for management and development of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The movement and diffusion process of pollutants in current of water are affected by water temperature, local flow velocity and direction, stream shape, and so on. Therefore, any pollutant concentration in the backward position of sewer outlet is a variable, not a constant. Apparently, to precisely describe and simulate the trend of water quality variation of the ChangJiang artery after construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the stochastic model is needed. We set up a two dimensional stochastic model to predict the trend of water quality variation. The ecological situation was not so good and there is a severe pollution of water in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. It is very difficult to solve the water pollution thoroughly by the simple end prevention. Therefore, on the basis of the sustainable development principle and safety of water situation, the paper puts forward measures of water quality control from the point of view of management in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.更多还原