社会转型时期中国人口的离婚态势研究

【作者】 胡巧娅；

【导师】 陈明立；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 人口学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 按照费孝通先生的理论,婚姻一种社会行为,是受当时的经济、政治、社会条件制约的。同理,作为婚姻状态其中一种,离婚行为也有其自身的时空性和历史性。因此,本文以整个中国所处的社会转型时期为切入点,着力从经济、政治、文化转型等方面对我国持续攀高的人口离婚率做深入的剖析,并最终预测出我国未来人口离婚率态势的发展走向。全文共分四章:第一章为关于离婚问题的文献回顾:先从婚姻的含义入手,再到婚姻的特性,对古今中外的有关理论和文献做了简单梳理;然后对国内外相关的离婚理论及实证研究进行总结和评述。第二章为社会转型时期离婚概况描述。在对本文研究的“转型”进行了界定和限定后,用少许笔墨回顾了我国历史上曾出现的两次离婚高潮,并把关注的重心放在我国正在进行的第三次离婚高潮上。笔者根据自身研究的需要,首先对衡量离婚水平的各个指标的计算公式作了个性化定义,然后以1978年以来年份的离婚数据和1990、2000年两年的人口普查资料以及2003年人口变动情况抽样调查为基础,整理出图1(1978-2003年离婚率变动曲线)、图2(三次普查人口结构图)、图3(女性人口分文化程度离婚率)、图4(男性人口分文化程度离婚率)、图5(男性人口分职业离婚率)、图6(女性人口分职业离婚率)、图7(城乡差异粗离婚率)和表2-4,并由此得出我国离婚率逐年平滑上升的趋势;低文化程度男性和高文化程度女性离婚几率较大;男性人口中的“其他人员”和女性人口中的“国家机关工作人员”离婚率最高;城镇居民的婚姻稳定程度明显低于乡村。笔者还采用寇尔死亡概率法编制出1990年、2000年婚姻状态生命表,在数字间寻找我国分性别离婚预期寿命普遍上升的内在动因。在本章第三节中,笔者引入了以离婚率Y为应变量,X1收入、X2失业率、X3人均受教育年限、X4城市化率、X5第三产业贡献率为自变量的计量经济学多元回归方程。通过逐步回归的方法和T检验、F检验,最终确立了X1、X4为基础的二元回归方程:更多还原

【Abstract】 This text regards making the transition in period in the society that the whole China is in as the breakthrough point, put forth effort to make the deep analysis at climbing continuously high divorce of our country from economy, politics, culture aspects, and predict finally that the development trend of the situation of future divorce rate of our country appears. The full text is divided into chapter three together:Chapter one is the literature retrospect about question of divorcing: Proceed with meaning of the marriage first, reach the characteristic of the marriage, and comb relevant theories and literature at all times and in all lands briefly; Then summarize and comment to domestic and international relevant divorced theories and positive research.Chapter two describes the overview of divorcing in period of society transition. Until " the transition " of research go on , define and limit , reviews our two country climax divorce which appeared in history with a little pen and ink to this text, put , divorce climax for the third time while being ongoing in our country concerned weight.In chapter three, I put new divorce situation in China into the transition loud background of period, carry on in-depth analysis to its reason and describe the influence that economic transition put on divorce in section one at first.Section two probes into the influence of culture transition on divorcing emphatically. And define“culture”and“culture transition”at first. Secondly, simply analyses the influence of politics transition on divorcing. Moreover, describes the influence on divorcing of transmutation of the values. Finally, the simple right influence of the marriage of development in pluralism of discussing the life style.Section three mainly describes that family’s structure and function influences on divorcing.更多还原