金融中介发展与经济增长的关系

【作者】 王丽；

【导师】 谢小燕；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 统计学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 经济增长一直以来都是许多学者关注的焦点,如何提高生活水平、消除贫困和两极分化、和谐发展,这一切都聚焦在了经济增长的话题上。于是,对影响经济增长因素的探讨也愈演愈烈,近年来,劳动力、资本积累、技术进步、规模经济、人力资本等实际因素已逐步被引入了经济增长方程中,内生化为影响经济增长的变量,在对已有因素分析不断成熟基础上,一些学者将目光转到了金融因素上,试图剖析金融在经济增长中地位和作用,尤其是1997年亚洲金融危机的爆发,更加速了这一研究进程。金融发展主要包括金融中介发展和资本市场发展两部分,考虑到资本市场不发达以及现有的大部分研究表明资本市场对经济增长的效应是非常弱的,所以本文将研究重点放在金融中介发展与经济增长关系的探讨上。实证研究部分是本文的重点,主要思路就是采用因果检验方法来确定两者之间的关系。由于非平稳变量因果检验其结果在一定程度上存在着不稳定性,所以本文对因果检验进行了改进,根据Engle(1984)的建议本文对I(1)序列采用一阶差分后的VAR系统,来进行因果检验,考虑到变量因果关系同样要受到长期均衡的影响,本文对变量之间长期因果关系进行了分析,Johansen检验结果显示变量之间存在三个协整关系,进而从对应于协整系数而言的调整系数是否显著性入手对得到了变量之间的长期因果关系。这一研究过程具有一定的方法创新。以下将简要介绍一下各章节的内容。本文第二部分对金融中介发展与经济增长之间的理论进行了研究,现阶段来看金融发展理论已经很成熟了,而金融中介理论与之相比产生的晚、相对薄弱一些,但考虑到金融中介发展理论从根本上说属于金融发展理论的范畴,其中,一些金融理论比如:金融压制理论、金融深化理论和金融发展理论等都可以引申到金融中介发展理论中来,这样就在很大程度上,为我们借鉴和运用金融发展理论分析金融中介问题奠定了基础。本文对金融中介发展与经济增长的理论研究就更多还原

【Abstract】 Economic growth has become into the focus researched by many scholars, how to improve living standard, dispel the poverty and so on that are involved in. In these years many scholars view financial development as playing a key role in the process of economic growth. They advocate a‘liberalized’financial system which they say is able to mobilize an increased volume of financial saving and allocate capital and contribute to economic growth. Especially Asian financial crisis in 1997 accelerated the process. Financial development includes two aspects: one is financial intermediary development, another is capital market development. Considering the short time development of capital market and weak effect on economic growth that has researched by some scholars, we only pay our attentions to the financial intermediary development. Empirical research is the emphases of the paper. The primary method is causality test. Due to unstable result of Nonstationary variable, there makes some improves on the method, for example: Regarding the variable of integrated of order one as new variable and making Granger causality analysis. In the same time we analyze long-run effect on causality results. The main method used is multivariate cointegration analysis. Johansen test shows there are three cointegrating vectors in our VAR of five variables. Then we test dynamic of the error correction coefficients. These have some innovator on methodology. This paper is divided into four chapters, whose main contents and structure are as follows:Chapter1-research backgroundNowadays literatures of relationship between financial development and economic growth are comprehensive; by contrast the literatures of financial intermediary development to some extent are weak. Considering更多还原