中国货币政策与产出关系的研究

【作者】 杨余；

【导师】 向蓉美；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 统计学， 2006， 硕士

【副题名】基于货币供应量与产出的实证分析

【摘要】 1990年以后,中国的经济经历了几个不同发展时期。从1992年开始,通货膨胀日益严重,消费价格指数在1993年的时候达到有史以来的最高点24.1%,1992～1997年GDP平均增长率达11.91%。宏观经济调控的重点放在抑制总需求膨胀上。与此相对应,中国政府坚持适度从紧的货币政策。1997年中国国民经济实现“软着陆”后,随着国内外经济环境的变化,有效需求不足、通货紧缩、经济增长减缓等矛盾逐步暴露出来,1998～2002年这段时间的GDP平均增长率仅为8.28%。中国的经济政策也由以前的抑制总需求膨胀转为扩大国内需求、调整供给结构。这段时间的货币政策开始转变为反通货紧缩的稳健的货币政策。2003年,我国的GDP增长率在7年内首次突破10%,中国的通货紧缩也得到控制,中国政府继续实施稳健的货币政策,不过这时的货币政策已经不是为了防通货膨胀,而是为了促进经济增长。国内外的经济发展表明,货币政策与经济生产之间有着密切的关系,所以国内外对于货币政策与产出的关系进行了热烈讨论。笔者基于对我国货币政策与产出的兴趣,开始了这方面的研究。在国内外的研究中,虽然大家采用了不同历史时期的数据,利用比较流行的计量经济方法来研究货币(在本文中也指货币供应量)与产出的关系,但是很少有人在一个整体历史时期上通过划分阶段来研究。因此,本文利用计量经济方法在分析货币政策与产出关系的基础上,尝试着对中国1992年到2005年的历史时期进行分阶段探讨。本文利用1992年第一季度～2005年第四季度的季度数据,采用统计分析方法进行实证分析,并对这段历史时期的不同阶段进行比较分析。最后得出结论,中国的货币与产出有着显著的关系,而且货币变动是引起产出变动的原因。但在不同历史阶段不同层次的货币与产出的关系密切程度具有不一致性。文章总共六章,主要结构如下:更多还原

【Abstract】 After 90’s, China Economy had some new developing stage. And monetary policy also had changed with change of the whole economic situation. Monetary policy can be divided into three periods. The first one began in 1993. From that time, the Center Bank made out and implemented moderation tight anti-inflation monetary policy. The second period is from 1997 to 2001. In this period, the monetary policy was level-headed policy, which was different from the first period. The last period started from 2003 and till today. In this stage, the level-headed monetary policy was still on the board. At the same time, China economy can be saw fluctuation. We use the CPI to reflect the whole inflation situation. From 1992, CPI begun to increase and it arrived at peak, which was 24.1%, ant the mat index was also the max. In the recent 13 years. After some year’s effort, the CPI decreased after 1997. In 1997, China economy realized“soft landing”successfully, China begun to go far away from inflation. But in the following years, the demand showed some degree insufficiency. The target of China economy changed into enlarges domestic demand from control.In foreign economics field, a lot of people like to discuss the relation between monetary policy and output of a country. On the base of interest on this problem, I want to know the really relation of monetary policy and output of China in the recent 13 years after reading a lot of literatures and papers.The first part of my paper is to summarize literature. The foreign research showed consentaneous idea on the short period relation between monetary policy and output. That is there has relation between monetary policy and output in short period. But until now, there still had tow against opinions on the long period relation. Some think they do not have any obvious relationship, but others think they have obvious relationship.更多还原