浅析中国的资本流入模式

【作者】 邱禹嘉；

【导师】 倪克勤；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2006， 硕士

【副题名】形成动因及效应分析

【摘要】 长期以来,经济学界认为国际资本流动促进了资本在全球更有效地分配。特别对资本稀缺的发展中国家而言,与全球资本市场的金融一体化是其寻求经济高速增长的关键。然而,资本项目的开放好坏掺半,在20世纪90年代晚期许多新兴市场国家遭受了沉重的金融和国际收支危机。但中国的确从以FDI为主导的资本流入模式中受益。关键的问题是中国是怎样实现这一资本流入构成的,而这一资本流入构成是许多新兴市场国家渴望拥有但却极少实现的;这一资本流入模式给中国经济带来了怎样的收益和风险;中国政府应做出怎样的政策选择才能确保进一步融入国际金融市场不会使风险-收益平衡恶化。考虑到中国在世界经济中的重要地位,研究中国资本流入的性质和决定因素既有巨大的分析意义,又有助于我们理解资本在地区和全球的分配。在第一章,我们首先介绍了中国资本流入的历史演进并进行了简单的国际比较,指出了不同时期资本流入的主要形式。很明显,当前我国的资本流入模式是以FDI为主导的大量资本流入。然后,我们具体介绍了两种重要的资本流入形式:外商直接投资(FDI)和对外借款。我们从外商直接投资的总量,来源地特征,行业和地区分布特征以及中国FDI流出等方面对在我国的外商直接投资进行了细致的剖析。第二章,我们要解决的问题是中国是怎样实现以FDI为主导的大量资本流入这一资本流入构成的。首先对三种流行的假设做出批判。第一种假设从影响FDI的激励和限制因素的角度出发,认为中国资本流入中高份额的FDI反映了中国政府激励FDI流入同时阻碍外债和证券投资流入的混合政策。第二种假设从重商主义的角度出发,认为鼓励FDI流入是促进出口导向型经济增长的重商主义战略的一部分,且保持低估的汇率支撑了这一出口导向型经济增长。第三种假设从机构建设的角度出发,指出中国资本流入以FDI为主导反映了国内资本市场的不足。从管理的角度出发,认为用于修建厂房并与中国企业分享更多还原

【Abstract】 China has in many ways taken the world by storm. In addition to its swiftly rising prominence in the global trading system, where it now accounts for over 6 percent of total world trade, it has also become a magnet for foreign direct investment (FDI), overtaking the United States (in 2003) as the number one destination for FDI.It was not always thus. China’s integration with the global economy began in earnest only after the market-oriented reforms that were instituted in 1978. Capital inflows, in particular, were minimal in the 1970s and 1980s, impeded by capital controls and the reluctance of international investors to undertake investment in a socialist economy with weak institutions and limited exposure to international trade. All of this changed in the early 1990s, when FDI inflows surged dramatically on account of the selective opening of China’s capital account as well as the rapid trade expansion that, in conjunction with China’s large labor pool, created opportunities for foreign investors. These inflows have remained strong ever since, even during the Asian crisis of the late 1990s.Given China’s status as a global economic power, characterizing the nature and determinants of China’s capital inflows is of considerable interest for analytical reasons as well as for understanding the implications for the regional and global allocation of capital. Our primary objective in this paper is to provide a detailed descriptive analysis of the main aspects of capital inflows into China. Given the degree of interest in China and the relative paucity of data, we aim to provide a benchmark reference tool for other researchers, including by providing some critical perspectives on the numbers that we report.SectionⅠpresents a detailed picture of the evolution of China’s capital inflows. A feature of particular interest is that China’s capital inflows have generally been dominated by FDI, which, for an emerging market, constitutes a preferred form of inflows since FDI tends to be更多还原