利率政策对房地产市场影响的短期分析

【作者】 徐元彪；

【导师】 阮小莉；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2006， 硕士

【副题名】以成都住宅市场为例

【摘要】 近年来,我国房地产市场发展迅速,房地产业成为了国民经济的支柱性产业之一。在房地产业高速发展的同时,相应的问题也随之显现。其中最重要的是,短期内房价上升过快。特别是这两年,全国各大城市的房地产价格每年上升的速度均超过了10%。随之而带来的结果是,公众对未来的预期表现为,由于当前房价的快速上升而认定未来会进一步的快速上升,从而当前的需求也随之高涨,进一步推动了当前的房价,如此的恶性循环,仅仅通过这样预期就能得到自我实现。同时,房价的高涨,开发商的投资热情也随之高涨,各地区房地产投资最低的增幅都在每年30%左右,最高甚至达到100%以上。由于房地产开发周期较长,当前的过度投资在未来会表现为大量的房地产供给,一旦需求无法继续维持高水平,市场很快就会陷入萧条。因此,短期内房价的飞速上升,极不利于房地产市场的稳定发展。除了房价的飞速上升之外,房地产市场一片繁荣的背后,却存在着诸多问题。各种投资、投机性需求增加,大量投机性的资金进入房地产市场;房地产开发结构不合理,中低价位房地产开发比例偏低;开发商囤积土地现象严重,地价涨幅也很快;银行对开发商贷款的风险的上升,导致了金融系统的隐患;市场秩序混乱,各种虚假信息泛滥,市场预期不够理性等等。诸多问题亟待强有力的政府政策出台。在2005年初,首先是央行上调了个人房贷利率,紧接着国家七部委联合发布了《关于做好稳定住房价格工作的意见》,这两项重要的政策对房地产市场造成了很大的影响。最主要的是,针对购房者,提高了房贷利率,严厉的税收措施对投机性的购房需求打击甚大;针对开发商,进一步明确了土地征用方面的规定,加强了银行信贷方面的风险控制。由于房地产开发周期较长的特点,大部分的政策作用只能在长期中显现。但在短期,政策的作用必须要抑制房价的过快上升。短期内,政策的影响主要表现在,对公众预期的引导,对投机者行为更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper is to find out the function of interest policy in the short term. We regard the house-market of Chengdu as objection to make our analysis.In the early year of 2005, the government issue two important policies to the estate-market. In principle, to the purchaser, the interest of loading is improved lightly and the speculator is influenced seriously by implementing harder tax policy; to the developer, the use of land is limited severely, and the load from bank would not be as easy as before. In the long term, the policy will influence the estate-market in many aspects; in the short term, some effects will occur quickly.Firstly, we analyze the condition of market before the implement of the policy. The conclusion is that the house-price in the market is below the equilibrium price, and will rise promptly. Secondly, with regard to the influence of the policy to the speculator and the public anticipation, we make up two hypotheses. One is that there are many speculators in the market and they have controlled the market; the other is that the quantity of speculators is small, and the market is dominated by the public anticipation. Using the model of supply-demand, we conclude the law of the fluctuation of price. Finally, by checking the actual movement of price, we validate the conclusion. As a result, the second hypothesis is accepted.In the end, we draw our conclusion. In the short term, by impacting the anticipation of the public, the interest policy achieved its purpose.更多还原