【作者】 兰叶霞；

【导师】 赵先贵；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 环境科学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 人类对自然资源长期不合理的开发利用所积累的大量生态隐患和环境欠债不仅严重制约了经济的发展,影响人类社会的进步,而且对人类现在和未来的社会经济发展构成威胁,迫使人们开始关注生态安全问题。生态安全与人类未来生存安全密切相关,它已与军事安全、经济安全、政治安全等同等重要。区域生态安全是区域可持续发展的前提和基础。因此,生态安全的评价已成为社会经济发展和生态环境保护关注的热点和研究重点。对于生态安全的研究,目前国内外所应用的研究方法以定性的理论分析为主,定量方法比较单一。为此,本文应用目前国际上比较流行的生态足迹方法,大跨度地从时间序列和空间范围来研究区域的可持续发展状态,评价其生态安全程度。 近年来江西的经济取得了飞速的发展,但同时也对生态环境造成了严重的破坏。本文选取地理位置极其重要,生态环境问题却十分突出的江西省作为研究区域,以可持续发展理论为指导,利用生态足迹模型来计算江西省1980～2004年的生态足迹,通过对结果的对比分析来定量评价25年来江西经济发展的可持续性及其生态安全度,以期为政府管理部门的决策提供科学的参考依据。 全文分为七大部分论述: 第一部分为绪论部分,论述了问题的提出、研究的目的和意义,综述了目前生态安全和生态足迹研究方法的国内外进展。 第二部分为研究方法,介绍了生态足迹及与其相关的几个基本概念、生态足迹模型的计算方法,提出了更为科学的基于生态足迹的生态压力指数模型,制定了新的生态安全评价指标与等级划分标准。 第三部分为研究区概况,概述了江西省的自然地理、社会经济以及目前社会经济发展所面临的生态环境状况。 第四、五、六部分为本文的主体部分,从生态足迹和生态安全角度对江西省进行了大跨度的时间动态研究和空间对比分析。并计算了万元GDP的生态足迹,以反映其资源利用效率。最后对江西省的生态安全问题进行了分析,并提出了减缓生态足迹,提高生态承载力,增加生态安全的措施。 第七部分为结论和讨论部分。概述了本文的主要结论、研究特色和创新之处及不足之处。通过上述的计算分析,得到以下结论: (1)1980～2004年江西省人均生态足迹呈现上升趋势,从1980年的1.4390hm~2更多还原

【Abstract】 The massive ecological danger and environmental debt induced by human being unreasonably exploiting the natural resource for a long time have not only restricted the development of economy, but also become a threat toward the development of society and economy at present and in the future. Therefore, person has to pay attention to the ecological security problems. Ecological security is close to the humanity survives in the future and it has become as important as military security, economic security and political security etc. The regional ecological security is the premise and foundation of regional sustainable development. Therefore, the evaluation of the ecological security has become the hot and important spot of the development of social economy and the ecological environment protection. Now, qualitative theoretical analysis is used mostly to evaluate the ecological security both at home and abroad. Moreover, the quantificational method is quite unitary. Therefore, the author applies the ecological footprint method (which is quite popular in UN) to evaluate the sustainable development and ecological security of the region from the time series and the spatial scope by the great span.Recently, the eco-environment was badly damaged due to the rapid economic development in Jiangxi province. In this paper, the author selected a region, Jiangxi province, whose geographical position is important but it has serious ecological environment problems. Based on the sustainable development theory, the ecological footprints of Jiangxi province from 1980 to 2004 was calculated in terms of the ecological footprints modeling. The results of this paper give a quantitative evaluation for the sustainable development of economy and the ecological security. Meanwhile, the results can provide a basis of decision analysis for the decision-makers in this study area.The paper consists of seven parts:Firstly, the paper states the question to propose, the research goal and the significance, summarizing the research situation of ecological security and the ecological footprint both domestic and foreign.Secondly, it introduces the several basic conceptions and method of ecological footprint, propose ecological pressure index model based on the ecological footprint andformulate the new ecological safe appraisal index and the rank standard.Thirdly, it summarizes natural geography and social economy of Jiangxi Province and the ecological environment condition at present that social economy development faces.From the fourth to the sixth, it calculates and analyses the ecological footprint and the ecological security of Jiangxi province from the great span time dynamic studying and the spatial analyses. And it calculates ten thousand Yuan GDP ecological footprint to reflect efficiency of resources using. Finally, the paper analyzes ecological security problem of Jiangxi Province, and proposes some measures of slowing down the ecological footprint, enhancing the ecological supporting capacity, and increasing ecological security.It is a conclusion part in the seventh. It outlines the main conclusion, the innovation place and the deficiency of the article. The paper draws following conclusions through calculations above-mentioned:(1) The per person Ecological Footprint (EF) of Jiangxi province presents a trend of escalation from 1980 to 2004, increasing from 1.4390hm2 in 1980 to 1.9304hm2 in 2004, with the yearly average rate of increment of 1.23%.The per person EF of Xinyu city is the biggest among 11 cities in Jiangxi Province, the following are Yingtan city’s and Nanchang city’s, the smallest are the ones of Ganzhou City and Shangrao city. Compared with 1996, the per person EF in 2004 of 11 cities in Jiangxi Province all were increasing, in which Xinyu city’s increased fastest, Shangrao city’s was slowest. Generally speaking, Shangrao city’s and Ganzhou City’s per person EF are smaller, and Xinyu city’s is the most dangerous in the state of insecurity in 11 cities.(2) The ecological capacity (EC) per person of Jiangxi Province overall presents a drop tendency for 25 years, dropping from 0.8375hm2in 1980 to 0.6227hm2 in 2004, with yearly average rate of reduction of 1.23%. Among the six kinds of biologically productive areas, the EC per person of arable land and forestland are much bigger, pasture’s is the smallest, which indicates the lawn resource of Jiangxi is quite deficient. Moreover, each kind of land areas overall are reducing as the result of the land using unreasonably. In 2004, the EC per person of Ji’an city is the biggest in 11 cities, Pingxiang’s is the smallest. Except Yingtan city, the EC per person of 11 cities in 2004 are all reduced compared with which in 1996, among which Jingdezhen city’s reduced scope is biggest, Pingxiang city’s is the smallest.(3) The sustainable condition of Jiangxi Province is always in the ecological deficit (ED) from 1980 to 2004. Moreover, the ED grows unceasingly, from 0.6016hm2 in 1980 to 1.3076hm2 in 2004, with yearly average rate of increment of 3.29%, which indicated the development of Jiangxi for 25 year is at the unsustainable condition. The contradiction of the supplies and demands of 11 cities is incisive, the EF per person bigger than the EC per person. The ED of Xinyu city is the biggest, Shangrao city’s is the smallest. The increased range of Xinyu city in 2004 is the biggest compared with which in 1996, Shangrao city’s is the smallest. Obviously, the contradiction of supplies and demands in Xinyu city, whose development is unsustainable, is extremely prominent.(4) From 1980 to 2004, the ecological footprint of renewable resource in Jiangxi Province is higher than the ecological capacity, the ecological pressure index presents a growth trend which causes the ecological security rank to rise unceasingly. In 1980, the ecology of Jiangxi Province was at slight insecurity level condition (4 level), however, it changed into an extremely unsafe condition (6 level) in 2004. At present, ecological security problem of Jiangxi Province is very serious and sustainable development is faced with stern test. Among 11 cities, Ecological pressure index of Nanchang city is the greatest, which is as 2.40 times as ji’an’s whose is the smallest. Furthermore its increased scope is the biggest, too. Obviously Nanchang’s ecology is withstanding huge pressure that is due to coordination between its economical development and environmental bearing capacity. And Nanchang city increases the scope to be biggest.(5) From 1980 to 2004, Jiangxi Province’s ten thousand Yuan GDP ecological footprint presents a dropping tendency, decreasing progressively 1.60 hm2 every year, For 25 years the efficiency of its resources enhances 17.90 times, which indicates its benefit of resources is enhancing. But, in 2004, the ten thousand Yuan GDP ecological footprints in 9 city is bigger than 2.5 hm2 of the 11 city. Generally speaking, the exploiting of efficiency of resources in Jiangxi Province is not high. The ten thousand Yuan GDP ecological footprint of Nanchang is lowest (1.3558 hm2), which indicates that its use efficiency of resources is highest;whereas ten thousand Yuan GDP ecological footprint of Yichun city is the greatest (4.6338 hm2), which indicates its use efficiency of resources is lowest in 11 cities.(6) The rapid population growth is a main factor which causes the ecological deficit of Jiangxi Province to increase year by year.The innovation: For the first time, the quantitative evaluation of Jiangxi Province has been safely made about the sustainable development and the ecological safety by using the ecological footprints modeling from the time series and the spatial scope by the great span. Meanwhile, the author has carried on the forecast by using the SPSS software. Next, the author has conducted the spatial analysis to ecological footprint, ecological capacity, ecological deficit, ecological pressure index and the ecological security rank of 11 cities in Jiangxi Province by using the MAPGIS software. Then, the author has proposed a more scientific ecological pressure index computational method based on the ecological footprints and formulated a new ecological safe appraisal target and rank standards, all of which be used in Jiangxi Province’s ecological security appraisal. Fourth, in order to reflect the use efficiency of region resources, this paper has calculated the demands for ten thousand Yuan GDP ecological footprints of Jiangxi Province in 1980-2004, and has made a tendency forecast to the whole province. Moreover, the author has calculated and analyzed the demand for ten thousand Yuan GDP ecological footprints of various cities in 2004.更多还原