【作者】 高峰；

【导师】 孙东升；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 欧盟、美国棉花补贴会对世界棉花生产和贸易产生明显影响,如何合理评估此种影响成为国内外共同关注的焦点。对于作为棉花生产和消费大国的中国而言,如何合理评估欧美棉花补贴对中国棉花产业的影响,以及如何应对此种影响,以确保中国棉花产业的持续健康发展,就成了本文研究的重点。本文在对国内外棉花补贴研究成果综述的基础上,重点选择比较分析法研究了中国、美国、欧盟的棉花产业现状和棉花补贴状况,选择ATPSM模型方法定量研究了欧盟、美国棉花补贴对我国棉花产业可能造成的影响。研究结果显示,欧盟、美国高额棉花补贴严重压低了国际市场棉价,使我国棉农收益和福利受损,对我国棉花生产和进出口贸易造成了非常不利的影响。其中,若按G20方案计算,欧美棉花补贴共压低国际市场棉花价格约47.21美元/吨,使我国棉花产量共计减少约7.8万吨。在定性和定量研究的基础上提出了加强国际合作、对我国棉农实行必要的补贴、建立预警应急机制、掌握充分证据并学会利用世贸组织规则、完善补贴与反补贴立法等五项政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The impact of US and EU cotton subsidies on the world cotton production and trade is evident. Some domestic and foreign experts are focusing their attention on finding a solution to evaluate this impact. As a Chinese, the author tries to find a solution to evaluate the impact of US and EU cotton subsidies on China’s cotton sector. The author tries to summarize methods of researching this problem and makes use of the comparative analytical method to research the cotton subsidies of China, US, EU. Additionally, the author chooses Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model to quantify this impact of US and EU subsidies on the China’s cotton sector. The research results show that US and EU cotton subsidies led to a lower world market price and led our farms to lose sales. Subsidy also put the China’s cotton production and trade at a disadvantage. Thereinto, according to G20 scenario, the world market price of the cotton is depressed about 47.21$/metric ton. The Chinese cotton production is totally decreased to about 78 thousand metric ton. At the end of the paper, the author gives five proper suggestions based on the analysis.更多还原