【作者】 杨莉；

【导师】 俞树荣；

【作者基本信息】 兰州理工大学 ， 化工过程机械， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 管道运输行业发展的这些年来,事故发生率较高,其中不乏恶性事故,后果严重,包括经济损失以及人员伤亡,引起了社会的强烈反响。因此,管道系统的后期管理,可靠性分析及风险评价也引起来自了各方面的重视。发展和完善这些技术刻不容缓。 对管线失效事件类型和后果的分析强调出在如何有效的控制有关危险中,预防是最重要的。管道的风险分析中最主要基本点是在对历史事故数据的分析基础上进行不同管道系统的风险识别及确认。本文借鉴其它管道系统的事故原因,列出了管道类型初步分类应考虑的条件和面临的主要风险。对管道类别应该有区别的划分:比如天然气管道和输送有危险液体介质的管道。因为不同类别的管道有不同的性质和危险程度。同一管道系统,不同管段也应该有所划分,这样才能准确了解各薄弱环节,分别轻重缓急,掌握减少风险工作的最佳时机,将风险因素控制在管理者容许的范围之内。 故障树分析是适合用于大型复杂系统的可靠性和安全分析的一种技术。应用故障树分析的原理建立了基于破裂和穿透两种失效形式的长输油气管线故障树,对故障树进行定性分析,求出最小割集,识别了引起管道失效的主要影响因素。故障树分析法从本质上讲还是一个容易进行定量计算的定性模型。因此,可以以此模型进行管道定量风险分析。 长输管道系统中由于缺乏足够的现场数据及实验数据,因此利用模糊故障树分析法对长输管线系统进行分析。以长输管线主要风险因素故障树为模型,采用三角模糊数表示事件发生的概率,计算管道失效概率,并将模糊重要度分析的新方法—中值法引入长输管线系统的故障树分析中来,给出了计算方法及步骤,并用模糊重要度法对故障树基本事件进行排序。为处理长输管线故障树中的模糊问题提供了一种研究思路。 运行中的油气管线是一个复杂的系统,这个系统中部分信息已知,部分信息未知,因而可以将它看作是一个灰色系统。同样以长输管线主要风险因素故障树更多还原

【Abstract】 Accidents in pipelines have occurred frequently in the past period of pipelines transporting developing. The pipeline accidents which include not a few malignant accident involved serious consequences such as casualty and economic losing. Public tolerance is now decreasing. Therefore, Risk reduction in hazardous pipelines is more and more important, such as: improvement of management system, reliability and risk analysis.The analysis of major accidents in hazardous pipelines underlines how the systematic control of the hazards involved is essential for prevention purposes. Identification of pipeline hazards associated with the different pipeline system functions is essential for risk analysis and historical data are of great importance. In the light of pipeline accidents occurred in Russia, Europe and the US, during 70’s-nearly 90’s, an analysis has been carried out, with the aim of full understanding the accidents and accidental causes as to provide a referential experience for the daily operation in the type elementary division of pipeline. Distinction should be made between several categories of pipelines e.g. gas and hazardous liquids pipelines, since the associated risks are of different nature and level. It is also important to distinguish between risks associated with different functions of pipeline systems.FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) is an effective method to evaluate the reliability and security of large complex system. Using this way, the failure of oil and gas pipeline sis discussed. The fault tree of oil and gas Pipelines is established by considering two major failure modes of pipelines: leaking and rupture. All the minimal cut-sets are got through qualitative analysis. The basic risk factors are investigated that cause failure of pipelines. Fault Tree is also a model that quantitative analysis is based upon.In the fault tree quantitative analysis of oil and gas pipelines, due to lacking of the enough test-data and field-data, the fuzzy mathematics analysis method is introduced. Triangular fuzzy-number designated probability of the basic events in fault tree. A new method-Median method for analyzing fuzzy significance was provided to order the basic events in fault tree. The process of calculation and steps were presented in detail. The fuzzy probability order and classification are also found. .The method given in this article is a new way to treat fuzzy failure probability of events in oil and gas pipelines.Oil and gas pipelines can be regarded as a grey system for its characteristic and grey theory, Grey correlation analysis is applied in the model identification of the fault diagnosis and fault tree analysis. The possibility of fault model could be judged correctly in the fault tree analysis, which provides a scientific basis for fault handlingin order to improving the reliability and security of the system.The paper is concluded with the point of view. Detailed distinction should be made between pipelines;the different fault tree should be established according to different pipelines and different part of pipeline;appropriate quantitative analysis based upon fault tree should be applied;a scientific and dada bases should be set up for manager.更多还原