【作者】 陆俊；

【导师】 叶少有；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 文章系统地阐述了滑坡预报的研究现状及滑坡预报目前的各种理论方法。结合淠史杭灌区滑坡研究课题建立了一个综合型长期预报模型,并确定了安全稳定系数、可靠度系数和表面现状系数为该模型的三个预报判据。引入了geo-slope这种先进的岩土工程计算软件,介绍了适用于边坡稳定分析的slope/w模块的基本命令以及slope/w模块的基本特点、使用方法,并对安全稳定系数和可靠度系数进行计算。利用贴近度原则和专家打分法确定各判据的评价指标,最后通过模糊综合评判得出预报结果,并与稳定程度指标集进行比较,确定预报结论。文章结合安徽省淠史杭灌区刘圩大桥段滑坡实例,根据模型进行预报,结果与实际吻合得较好,因此判定该模型是可靠的。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article elaborates the current condition of slope forecasting and various theories in system. According to the topic of slope in pishihang irrigate area in Anhui province, an interated long-term forecasting model is established. Then the forecasting judgments include the safe stability coefficient, the credibility coefficient and the surface present condition coefficient are determined in the article. This article uses the geo-slope software which is a sophisticated geo-technique calculating software and also introduces the slope/w module and its basic characters and using method, which is for the safe stability coefficient and the credibility coefficient analysis. Their evaluation index are determined by the principle of which degree comes close and judged by experts. Finally, the forecasting results are came up through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and compared with the index of the degree of stability. Then it can make the forecasting conclusion. This article takes liuwei bridge slope for example and the results show that they fit the actual situation very well. So this forecasting model is dependable.更多还原