【作者】 郭冠男；

【导师】 侯铁珊；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放至今,中国对外贸易的发展已经取得了举世瞩目的成就,入世又标志着对外贸易的发展进入了重要的历史阶段。从战略角度看,中国对外贸易发展的可持续性,关系到社会主义市场经济的发展,还关系到外贸、国民经济、资源环境之间的协调发展。因此对中国对外贸易发展可持续性进行科学的评价具有很强的现实意义。 本文从定性和定量两个角度对中国对外贸易发展可持续性进行了研究。首先通过定性方法从四个方面对其进行分析,这部分主要集中于横向的(即与其他国家的)比较分析。然后通过对对外贸易发展可持续性的概念界定入手,从贸易规模、贸易结构、贸易效应、经济效益、技术效益、资源效益六个方面建立了一套对对外贸易发展可持续性进行评价的指标体系,并对各个细化指标确定了量化方式,提出了对外贸易发展可持续性评价中熵值法确定权重的应用方法,使指标体系更具有可操作性和可推广性。 全文包括六个部分: 第一部分 通过对文献和理论的总结、归纳,提出了本文研究的目的、意义及方法。 第二部分 利用丰富详实的数据和直观清晰的图表从四个方面对中国对外贸易发展现状进行了详细的研究。 第三部分 通过对对外贸易发展可持续性概念的界定,指出了对外贸易发展可持续性应包含的主要六大内容。并在此基础上,对六个目标分别进行细化,建立了对外贸易发展可持续性评价指标体系,共含有18个具体指标。 第四部分 通过对对外贸易发展可持续性评价方法的研究,确定了熵值法在本文中作为权重赋值的应用方法。 第五部分 利用本文建立了的对外贸易发展可持续性评价指标体系和评价方法对中国对外贸易发展可持续性进行了实证研究,得出了中国对外贸易发展可持续性总体变化趋好和中国对外贸易存在贫困化增长两个主要结论,并进行了影响因素分析,提出相关建议。 第六部分 最后归纳了文章的主要结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the Reform and Opening-up to now, the foreign trade development of China has made outstanding achievements. Moreover, the entry of WTO (World Trade Organization) indicates that the foreign trade development of China has turned into a more important historic stage. From the strategic aspect, the sustainable capability of the foreign trade development of China, relates to the final foundation of socialism market economic system, and also relates to the harmonious development between foreign trade, national economy, resource and environment. However, if there isn’t a reasonable evaluation system, the evaluation of foreign trade’s sustainable capability will lose its seriousness and scientific meaning. Therefore, the establishment of a scientific and exercisable evaluation indices system of foreign trade’s sustainable capability development of China has a strong practical sense.The paper does study of Foreign Trade Development’s Sustainable Capability of China from qualitative and quantitative aspects. Firstly the paper makes qualitative research from four factors and this part mainly compares between China and other countries that is called a transverse comparison. Then the paper starts with the definition of the concept of foreign trade development’s sustainable capability, and establishes a set of evaluation indices, which includes six objects. Then the paper defines the formula of every specific index and the appliance of entropy method in the evaluation indices system of foreign trade development’s sustainable capability.The paper consists six parts:Part 1 The paper puts forward the purpose, significance and method of the thesis through analyzing and summing up the references, then advances its thought, method and frame.Part 2 By listing abundant data and vivid figures the paper does a detailed research in the current status of the foreign trade development of China.Part 3 By defining the concept of foreign trade development’s sustainable capability, the paper points out the six main composing parts that should be contained. On basis of previous analysis, the paper specifies every object and establishes the evaluation indices system of foreign trade development’s sustainable capability which includes 18 specific indices.Part 4 The paper defines the appliance of the entropy method.Part 5 Based on the previous part, the paper does a demonstration research by using the established sustainable indices system and estimating method. Then the paper educes two main conclusions, one of wh ch is that the foreign trade development’s sustainable capability of China is getting better from 1993 to 2003 and the other one is that there exists "Immiserizing Growth" inforeign trade of China. The ending of this part analyzes reasons of the conclusions and give some suggestions.Part 6 The paper draws some primary conclusions in this part.更多还原