【作者】 陈俊；

【导师】 陈德棉；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济改革的深入,房地产业作为国民经济的基础性和先导性产业得到了长足的发展,对社会、经济的发展产生了巨大的推动和影响,特别是进入90年代后,中国房地产业发展突飞猛进,一跃成为新的经济增长点。但与此同时,中国包括上海市的房地产业发展也面临不少问题。这些问题的解决不仅仅是实现房地产业健康持续发展的需要,同时也是实现产业结构调整和优化以及社会经济可持续发展的需要。考虑到房地产市场很强的地域性,该文以上海房地产市场的发展为研究对象,致力于构建一个适应于房地产市场,特别是上海市房地产市场的预测系统,通过对与上海市房地产市场相关的各种影响因素的定性、定量分析,然后进行分类,运用人工神经网络的集成系统结合这些分类数据对上海市房地产市场进行实证分析并对未来走势进行预测分析,为政府、投资者、开发商等提供一定的参考,为房地产市场的健康稳定发展提供借鉴,从而能做到未雨绸缪。 本文第一部分从东京、香港、海南等地房地产的崩盘事件出发,阐述了房地产的波动给经济社会发展及房地产市场的健康、稳定发展带来的危害,由此说明构建房地产市场预测系统的重要性(必要性),并选择具有代表性的城市——上海市作为研究对象。第二部分从房地产市场的基础知识、房地产周期、房地产波动的理论出发,从理论角度对房地产相关影响因素进行分析说明,并收集相关因素的数据运用统计手段对这些相关因素进行分析,得出与房地产市场关系密切的几个主要影响系统(可行性)。第三部分以人工神经网络尤其是径向基函数神经网络为基础,通过基于不同相关因素系统的神经网络集成手段进行优化,建立适合上海市房地产市场预测系统,从而在此基础上对上海市房地产市场的未来两年走势进行了预测与分析(实用性)。最后,对上海市房地产市场未来走势进行专家调查问卷分析,结果与预测数据基本拟合。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the deepening of economic reform, the real estate has got considerable development as the basic and guiding industry of national economy, have produced enormous push and influence to the society and economic development. Especially after entering the 1990s, the development of Chinese real estate advanced by leaps and bounds, suddenlied become new growth engines. But meanwhile, the real estate development of China including Shanghai faces many problems. The solution to these problems is not merely to realize the need that the real estate develops continuously healthily, the needs of industrial structure adjustment and optimizing and social economic sustainable development that realize at the same time. Considering real estate market a strong regional one , this article regards development of the real estate market of Shanghai as the research object, and construct a predicition system that adapt to real estate market, especially adapt to Shanghai real estate market. Through determining qualitative and quantitative analysis of various kinds of influence factors correlated with the real estate market of Shanghai, we classify these factors.Then we use artificial neural network integrated system with these classified data to make a real example analysis to Shanghai real estate market. Then we predict its future tendency to offer reference for the steady development of health of the real estate market.The first part of this text proceeds from the history evolution of the real estate market of Shanghai and existing problem, explain Shanghai market this line of question especially fluctuation of real estate , real estate of evolution give socio-economic development and health , real estate of market, danger brought in steady development, Therefore explain and structure the systematic importance of market prediction of the real estate. The second part proceed from rudimentary knowledge , real estate cycle , theory that the real estate fluctuates of the real estate market, analyse that explain to the relevant influence factors of real estatetheoretically , the data collecting relevant factors use the means of counting to classify these relevant factors, draw several main influence factors in close relation with real estate market. The third part Based on artificial neural network, optimize through such relevant supplementary means as the hereditary algorithm , fuzzy mathematics ,etc, it suits the real estate market prediction system of Shanghai, thus the tendency has been predicted to the future of real estate market of Shanghai and analysis to set up. At last, we analysis the future tendency of Shanghai real estate market through the expert questionnaire. And the result is close to the forecasting data.更多还原