【作者】 齐娜；

【导师】 许长新；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 国民经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 我国金融改革和开放的步伐不断加快,金融体系运行基本正常,但是由于影响金融稳定的因素众多,金融业的潜在风险有加大的趋势。总体来说,金融不稳定的可能性长期存在。因此,对中国金融稳定进行全面评估,是正确判断金融形势、及时化解金融风险、有效维护金融稳定的重要基础性工作之一。 本文在对金融稳定内涵进行基本预设的基础上,进一步综述了前人关于金融稳定理论、金融危机理论、金融稳定评估方面的相关研究成果。通过对我国金融稳定的总体现状进行概述,文章分析影响我国金融稳定的主导因素包括:宏观经济平稳运行是金融稳定的重要前提,金融系统完善稳健是金融稳定的基础条件,金融结构决定金融体系的内在稳定性以及其他一些需要关注的因素。 本研究构建了一套适合我国国情的金融稳定评价指标体系,包括一系列宏观经济稳定指标和微观综合审慎指标,并进一步确定各评价指标的权重。实证研究则运用模糊综合评价法对金融稳定指数进行测算,结果显示2004年度我国金融稳定综合指数值为41.98,金融处于隐性非稳定态势。研究表明:我国金融稳定主要取决于宏观经济运行的总体稳定、微观金融体系和其他一些影响资本流动逆转和银行危机方面的情况,所以说金融稳定的评价是一个系统工程,需要伴随经济的发展不断变化。更多还原

【Abstract】 The financial reform and opening up pace of our country are accelerating constantly, and the financial operation is basically normal, but due to the factors influenced finance are numerous, so the potential risk of the finance industry of our country has the tendency of increase.. In general saying, the possibility of financial instability is long-term existed. So carrying out an overall assessment to the stability of financial system, is one of the important foundation works to judge financial situation correctly, dissolve financial risk in time and effectively maintain the financial stability.On the foundations of putting forward the recognition of financial system stability, this dissertation summarizes the related research results in the aspect of financial stability theory, financial crisis theory and financial stability assessment. On the analysis basis of the overall situation of the financial stability in our country, it refers the dominant factors affecting financial stability of our country including: the stable operation of the macro economy is the important prerequisite of the financial stability, the foundation of the financial stability is a perfect and sound financial system, and the financial structure determines the intrinsic stability as well as some other factors needed attention of the financial system.This research constructs a set of measurement indicator system that suits our national conditions, including a series of macroeconomic stability indicators and micro synthetic caution indicators, and then obtains the weight of each assessment indicator. The dissertation also makes a positive analysis on financial stability of our country by using the fuzzy identification integrative assessment model, and the financial stability composite index of year 2004 is 41.98. Then it makes the corresponding analysis to the recessive and unstable results of the finance of our country. The financial stability of our country is mainly determined by the overall stable operation of the macro economy and micro financial system, and also some other factors which influence the reversal of capital flow and banking crisis. Therefore, the financial stability assessment is a system engineering, which is needed to be changed with the development of economy.更多还原