【作者】 李锋；

【导师】 张玉英；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 西方经济学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 外汇储备是国际货币体系的核心,也是国际金融领域的重要问题,它关系到各国调节国际收支和稳定货币汇率的能力。在开放经济条件下,外汇储备是考察一国对外经济关系的重要指标,它既是宏观经济运行结果的体现,又是对宏观经济进行调控的重要手段。随着我国经济金融对外开放程度的提高,外汇储备的增长加快与国内经济运行之间的协调成为了一个较为棘手的问题。有鉴于此,本文以外汇储备规模的基本理论为依据,对影响我国外汇储备的需求因素和供给因素进行了理论的分析,并以外汇储备的变化量(△FOREX)作为应变量,引入了净出口(NEXPORT)、国际收支差额(BOP)、人民币汇率变化(△R)、外债变化(△FDEBT)、外汇储备机会成本(OC)、外商直接投资(△FDI)、对外融资(△FF)等作为自变量建立模型,用以检验上述因素对我国外汇储备规模增长的影响程度。在前文分析的基础上,本文建立了度量我国外汇储备适度规模的模型,该模型取出口额、经济的开放程度、外债的负担状况、外商直接投资、国内生产总值作为自变量,根据丰富的历史数据计算出了我国1982年至2002年二十年间外汇储备规模的理论值,然后以之与同期我国外汇储备的实际值进行比较。结果表明,二十年来我国外汇储备确实发生了大规模的增长,且近几年来增长速度较大,外汇储备规模的实际值一直围绕其适度值波动,但波幅较小,也就是说,这二十年来我国外汇储备规模的增长是较为合理的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Foreign exchange reserve (FR) is the core of the international monetary system and of vital importance in the area of international financial research. It concerns the governments’ ability of adjusting balance of payment and stabilizing exchange rate. In the open economic environment, FR is a key index to inspect international economy for a country or district; it is not only an embodiment of macroeconomic operating, but also an important measure for macroeconomic adjusting and controlling. With the economic opening expanding in the world, it becomes an intractable problem that how the domestic economic operating assorts with the speeding up of FR increase. On the basis of FR scale theory, this paper analyses theoretically the FR increase in China about the supply and demand factors, and by introducing the dependent variable FR change, and the independent variables such as Net Export, Balance of Payment, Exchange Rate Fluctuation, Foreign Debt Change, Opportunity Cost, Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Finance, this paper establishes a model to test the effect on FR increase by these variables. In the next part, this paper establishes another model to calculate the moderate FR scale between 1982 and 2002 in China according to large numbers of historical data. In this model, the independent variables are Export, Economic Opening, Foreign Debt, Foreign Direct Investment and GDP. By comparing the results with the actual FR scale in the same period, this paper concludes that in the two decades the FR scale in China has increased rapidly and large, even in the recent years. The actual value of FR fluctuates around the theoretic value frequently, but the amplitude is small, that is, the increase of FR scale in the two decades in China is reasonable.更多还原