【作者】 郭冰阳；

【导师】 王亚雄；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 统计学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 农业现代化是一个历史范畴,是一个动态变化的过程,其内涵随着时代的发展而发展。在我国,农业现代化一直是理论界关注的热点问题,在各个历史时期,各学者、研究者们从各自的理论角度对农业现代化进行诠释。我们全面总结了他们的成果,并在此基础上根据我国现阶段的经济建设任务和全面建设和谐社会的发展目标,提出了包括社会、经济、生态在内的农业现代化新内涵。 目前,对我国农业现代化的研究侧重于定量分析方面,对农业现代化评价指标体系,尤其是评价方法的研究尚处于起步阶段,本文重点在这些方面进行了探索和研究。 本文紧紧抓住现阶段我国农业现代化的定义与内涵,对现有评价指标体系进行综合,建立了能全面反映我国农业现代化特征的原始指标群,再用聚类分析、非参数检验和相关系数相结合的方法对原始指标进行动态筛选,选出相关性低、代表性强的指标作为评价我国农业现代化的指标体系。然后用因子分析和数据包络分析相结合的方法对我国农业现代化进行综合评价,找出我国在农业现代化投入、建设软件和硬件方面的不足,以及其它阻滞农业现代化建设的关键因素。在此基础上,有针对性地提出加快推进我国农业现代化建设的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agricultural modernization is a history category, a dynamic course, which develops with the development of times. In our country, agricultural modernization is a hotspot cared by theoretical field at all times. In different time, scholars annotated the agricultural modernization in terms of their own theories. We summarize their theories fully, and on this basis, according to our country’s present economic construction task and the target of building peaceful society, we put forward the new content of agricultural modernization.At the present, agricultural modernization research lays particular emphasis on the quantitative analysis, but it is still at the starting stage to the agricultural modernization evaluation index system, especially to the research of appraising method. This article explores and researchs these fields specially.Surrounding tightly the content of agricultural modernization of China at present, this article generalizes present evaluation index systems, and builds original index system which can wholely reflect the characteristics of our country’s agricultural modernization. Using cluster analysis and noparametric test, this article selects the original index system dynamically, chooses lowly relative and strongly representative indexs to become the index system of evaluating agricultural modernization of China. Then, this article uses factor analysis and data envelopment analysis to synthetically evaluate agricultural modernization of China, finds out the lack of hardware and software in the aspect of agricultural modernization, as well as the key factors which obstruct the construction of agricultural modernization. On this basis, this article pertinently puts forward the policy recommendation of promoting agricultural modernization of our country.更多还原