我国微观经济主体资产选择行为对货币需求的影响

【作者】 张琦；

【导师】 岳意定；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 货币需求理论是整个货币经济观念的重心,也是宏观经济理论的重要组成部分,同时也是中央银行宏观控制的决策依据。货币需求问题的研究的主旨是通过对影响货币需求的关键因素的确定并进而探索货币需求函数,利于选定适当的货币政策目标,借以预期货币政策调控宏观经济的效果。为了便于中央银行有正确的决策依据,必须加强对货币需求函数的研究,重新认识和掌握货币需求函数。 进入21世纪以来,我国经济开放程度日益增加,金融创新程度逐步放快,全球一体化程度增加,这使得我国居民、企业、金融机构等微观经济主体的资产选择行为发生了重要变化。微观主体资产选择行为的变化在很大程度上影响货币需求,使货币需求机制发生深刻变化。基于微观经济主体的资产选择行为对我国货币需求影响研究的重要性,当前必须对我国经济主体的资产选择行为对货币需求影响的作用机理进行深入的研究。本文不仅从研究对象和研究内容上从微观层面上对这一问题进行分析,而且从深层次上揭示我国经济个体理智的经济行为影响我国货币需求的微观作用机理;同时,结合现有的各种宏观经济条件的变化,针对宏观因素的调整,采用阶段性分析方法,通过不同样本区间的比较分析研究宏观大环境发生变化的条件下,我国微观主体的资产选择行为对我国货币需求的影响路径。构建我国微观主体资产选择行为对货币需求影响的综合理论分析框架,为将来对于我国货币需求函数的进一步研究提供有效的理论参考。在对我国微观主体的资产选择行为对货币需求的影响的作用机理分析的基础上,结合宏观经济环境条件,多因素实证检验货币需求成因。 本文采用协整理论、Granger因果检验及向量自回归(VAR)等科学的计量分析方法,建立符合我国实际经济环境下的货币需求误差修正模型,同时采用稳定性检验、残差回归及脉冲冲击向量等检验手段对我国不同时间序列样本阶段的货币需求量、货币需求结构及货币需求稳定性进行实证分析,在此基础上建立适合现阶段我国货币需求预测模型,为我国宏观经济政策调控提供有力的理论支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 The theory of money demand is the key point of monetary research, the important part of macroeconomics and the base of macro-control by central bank. Forecasting the result of financial policy, the central bank can make out more correct money policies according to the present economy by researching the tendency of money demand.The asset-election behaviors of the micro-units, such as denizens, enterprises and financial institutions, have changed greatly since the open of China, the changes of regimentation, the development of financial innovation and the integration of the global economy during 21 century. The great changes in asset-election behaviors of micro-units affect the form mechanism of money demand. On base of the vital importance, the affection routine of the assets-election behaviors to money demand should be studied deeply according to the alteration of the macro-financial circumanstances. Under the new macroeconomics circumanstances, the asset-election behaviors of micro-units have affected the model of money demand by a new way. It’s necessary to study the dynamic affection mechanism and build up a renascent analysis frame of money demand to do further research. On the base of synthetic analysis of the affecting mechanism and the overall macro-economy, it’s of vital importance to put forward a research money demand model and use a theoretical model to analyze the key factors.Consequently, it’s scientific to builds up a theoretical model of money demand used to test the affecting mechanism of asset-election behaviors to money demand in China by adopting Johansen (1988,1989) cointegration approach & Granger test and build up its error correction model according to the actual economics in China. As a result, the dissertation puts forward corresponding policy advice for China after the econometric test of the amount, the structure and the stability of money demand in China by adopting the Chow breakpoint test, Breusch-Godfrey test and VAR impulse responses test to build up the present forecasting model of money demand.更多还原