【作者】 王晓华；

【导师】 周颖；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 会计学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 在我国经济体制和经济结构转轨,企业加快发展和深化改革的过程中,企业风险问题也日益突出。多数企业都面临着库存风险问题,库存过多,造成积压,不仅占用大量资金和场地加重企业的利息负担,而且长期存放会使物品陈旧过时,失去原有的价值和使用价值。如何降低库存风险,使库存经常处于合理水平,是每个企业都十分关心的问题。 近几十年来,尽管传统库存控制理论的扩展研究取得了较大的进展,但由于库存控制系统所处环境的复杂性与多变性,对其风险的衡量的研究还比较缺乏。本文论述了库存风险管理决策模型的理论研究和其在企业存货管理中的应用问题。 本文第一部分在总结分析国内外文献的基础上,指出现有研究存在存货风险分析不全面,存货风险的定量研究及控制欠缺等不足之处。第二部分分析了企业存货风险及风险管理的含义、特点和成因,以及通过VaR方法应用到存货风险管理中的可行性分析,为存货风险的衡量做了足够的铺垫。第三部分建立了企业存货风险衡量的VaR模型体系,该体系充分考虑了决策者的风险偏好。对模型的应用进行了实例分析。第四部分为基于VaR的企业存货风险管理方法分析,在分析了传统的存货风险管理方法后,提出了基于VaR的存货风险管理方法。第五部分是结论部分,对本文的研究作了总结和展望。 本文的特色与创新之处在于:一是本文所建立的模型具有计算方便、容易理解、能够实际问题、数据易于收集的特征。二是本文以全面风险管理为理念,综合考虑了存货管理过程中可能出现的管理者的风险偏好、需求风险等。拓宽了现有研究只关注对传统存货模型各方面的修正而忽视了对存货风险的度量和控制。三是本文所建立的风险模型将VaR方法与存货管理结合起来,一方面拓展了将VaR方法应用到企业风险衡量中,另一方面解决了目前对存货风险进行定量研究的不足。 上述研究不仅丰富了风险管理理论的内容,也拓宽了库存控制模型的应用空间,为决策者进行实际的库存决策提供了更充分的科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the transition of economic system and structure of our country, and in the course of enterprise development and reform, the risk problem of enterprise is outstanding day by day too. Most enterprises are facing the problem of inventory risk. Too much inventory makes overstocking of products, not only makes the fund to be lain idle and occupies the ground, but also aggravates the interest’s burden. After a long period of storage, goods will be out - of - date and devalued. How to lower the inventory risk is of great importance that every enterprise must focus on.The content of chapter one analyses the study of domestic and foreign literatures, and points out some deficiencies such as partially risk analysis, risk measure, risk control and so on. The second part analyses the meaning, characteristics and causes of the enterprises’ inventory risk. Then it makes further analysis to the feasibility analysis of VaR being used in the framework of inventory, which based for risk measure of inventory. The third part sets up the VaR model system of inventory risk measure. The system sufficient considered risk preference of inventory manager. In the end, the paper gave an example of model applying. The fourth part sets up inventory risk management methods based on VaR. The fifth part is conclusion part, including summarizing the paper and extension.The main characteristic and innovation of this paper lies in four aspects. Firstly, the model system has the characteristic of expediently calculating, easily understanding, solving practical problems and easily collecting data. Secondly, having the idea of overall risk management, it considers the aspects of inventory quality, risk preference of manager, demand risk and so on. The study developed the deficiencies about which the current research only paid attention to modify the traditional inventory models and ignored inventory risk management. Thirdly, the risk measure model combined the VaR approach and the inventory management theory, on the one side, it developed the application area of the VaR approach in enterprise risk management, on the other side, it solved the deficiencies of inventory measure in the current inventory theory.The extensive research results presented above not only enrich the content of risk management theory but also widen the applied areas of the traditional inventory control models, and provide more sufficient scientific evidence for decision makers making inventory decision.更多还原