海运安全领域中的人因分析

【作者】 李创；

【导师】 陈伟炯； 张锦朋；

【作者基本信息】 上海海事大学 ， 载运工具运用工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 随着人为失误造成的危害和损失越来越大,人机系统中的人为失误已成为21世纪安全科学学科理论研究中的一个重要课题。而控制人为失误的关键是掌握人为失误的机理及寻找其可靠性量化的模型,从而为预防人为失误及降低人为风险提供理论依据。在此基础上发展起来的人因可靠性理论在以核工业为代表的许多领域得到了广泛的应用,但在海运安全领域还缺乏相对系统的人因可靠性研究。基于此,本文在参阅了大量其它领域的人因理论研究成果的基础上,结合海运安全特点和本人多年的航海实践经验,对海运安全领域中的人为因素进行了系统的研究与分析,以期达到降低人为失误发生率,提高海运安全水平的目的。 本论文来源于上海市教委的课题“船舶运输安全评价技术”中关于人为因素的研究,研究的对象主要指海员,研究的基本思路为:基于安全系统工程中危险识别、风险评价和决策建议这三大基本步骤,运用人因基本理论,对海员失误的主要表现形式进行识别,分析影响海员行为的各种因素,定性和定量地评估海员的可靠性程度,并最终找出导致海员失误的根本原因,从而给出相应的预防措施。 本论文的创新点主要有以下几个方面: 首次运用人因可靠性基本理论对海运安全领域中的人为因素进行了系统的研究。识别了该领域中人为失误的主要表现形式,描述了海员的失误行为过程,归纳和总结了海员行为的影响因子,并运用主成分分析法,建立了辨识海员行为影响主因子的数学模型。 探讨了人的可靠性分析技术在对海船驾驶员的可靠性评估中的应用,提出了利用海损事故报告以及事故统计数据并结合专家意见评估驾驶员值班过程中的人的可靠性的实用技术,填补了目前航运界有关海船驾驶员可靠性研究的一项空白。所提方法和评价结果为海运安全系统中人的可靠性的进一步研究打下了基础,对海运安全系统的风险分析也有一定的参考价值。 针对目前航运企业在海员安全可靠性评估中所采用方法的不足,在综合考虑海员日常评估和年终评估结果的基础上,提出运用模糊综合评定法对海员安全可靠性进行评估。实例表明该方法是行之有效的,具有一定的实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the damages caused by human errors getting more and more serious, human errors in the man-machine systems have become an important task in the theory study of safety science in the 21~st century. The key of controlling human errors is to know the underlying mechanism for making human errors, to find a model for the quantification of human reliability and therefore to provide a theoretical basis for controlling human errors and reducing risks caused by human actions. The human reliability theory basing on the above mechanism and model has been wildly used in many fields, especially in the nuclear industry. However, in the field of maritime transportation safety, the human reliability study is still to be carried out. Therefore, by making reference to a large quantity of research findings of human reliability theory done in other fields and by taking into consideration the features of maritime safety and the author’s many years experiences in this feild, the thesis makes a systematic analysis of the human factors concerning the maritime safety in order to reduce the possibility of making human errors and, therefore, improve maritime safety.The origin of this thesis is a task from Shanghai Education Committee, which is to study the human factors in "evaluation of the safety techonology in shipping". Target for research is the seaman. The basic train of thoughts is as follows: Basing on the three steps i.e. the identification of risks, the evaluation of the risks and the proposals as the references for making decision, in safety system and employing the basic theory about human factors, the thesis identifies the main representations of the seaman’s errors, analyzes the various factors influencing seaman’s actions, evaluates the reliability of the seamen in both quality and quantity ways, finally finds out the foundamental causes leading to the seaman’s errors and therefore offers the corresponding prevention measures.This thesis discusses the application of the reliability analysis thechnology to the evaluation of the officers’ reliability of shipping vechiles, puts forward the practical skills of employing the maritime accident reports and the accidentstatistics as well as the experts’ advice in evaluating the officers’ reliability on duty, which fills up a technique vancacy in this field. The method could be applied not only to the further study of this topic but also to the analysis of the risks in the maritime field.The thesis has the following innovations:The thesis for the first time employs the theory about the reliability of human factors to systematically analyze the human factors in maritime safety, to identify the reprensentations of human errors in this field, to describe the whole process of the production of the seaman’s errors, to induce and summarize the Key Performance Influence Factors (KPIF) of the seamen. In addition, the thesis sets up a mathmatic model for identifying the human Key Performance Influence Factors by using the principle component analysis.In the light of the deficiency in crew reliability assessment methods used by the shipping industry, this thesis attempts to propose fuzzy integrative judgment for crew-assessment which is based on considering the results of routine assessment and year-end assessment ? A typical example shows that the proposed method is effective and practical.更多还原