【作者】 薛春芳；

【导师】 张玉斌；

【作者基本信息】 大庆石油学院 ， 机械设计及理论， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 本文在调查和分析聚驱抽油机井管杆偏磨失效模式的基础上,对管杆偏磨失效模式及其影响程度进行了模糊综合评判,得出了主要的5 种失效模式的致命度水平。本文利用可靠性统计理论,通过对现场使用聚驱抽油机井管杆偏磨的失效数据的收集、分析整理,得出聚驱抽油机井管杆偏磨失效数据库,基于Bayes 方法对其进行模糊可靠性分析。首先进行各态失效数据异常点的Bayes 诊断,对各态寿命分布参数进行Bayes 估计;然后基于模糊综合评判方法确定各态失效寿命概率模型。以隶属函数的确定原则为依据,与聚驱抽油机井现场工作的寿命情况相结合,确定了各失效模式下寿命数据的隶属函数。再利用模糊可靠性理论计算管杆偏磨失效寿命指标和模糊可靠性指标,最后对其进行综合分析。对比模糊可靠性分析方法与一般可靠性分析方法,发现对小样本失效数据进行可靠性分析时,模糊可靠性分析方法比一般可靠性方法得到的寿命指标和可靠性指标曲线更加接近实际生产情况,因此对生产实践的指导更加有科学根据。本文最后进行了管杆偏磨失效模糊可靠性仿真。首先根据模糊可靠性理论建立模糊可靠性仿真逻辑,然后利用模糊数学和概率统计建立模糊仿真数学模型,最后用蒙特卡洛法进行模糊仿真运行,对聚驱抽油机井管杆偏磨失效进行模糊可靠性仿真,得出聚驱抽油机井管杆偏磨失效模糊可靠度值和模糊可靠度在95%置信度下的置信区间。更多还原

【Abstract】 Through investigating and analyzing failure modes of side-abrasion failure of rod string for polymer drive pump wells, I study failure modes of side-abrasion failure of rod string and their effect degree by the fuzzy general judgment method, and get the deadliness level of the main 5 failure modes. According to reliability and statistical theory, I get the database of side-abrasion failure of rod string for polymer drive pump wells after I collect, analyze and deal with the field failure data. Then I analyze its fuzzy reliability by Bayes method. At first I diagnose unusual data point and estimate life distributing parameter of each failure mode by Bayes method. Secondly confirm the life probability model of each failure mode by the fuzzy general judgment method. Base on subjection function rule, therewith polymer drive pump wells’field life situation I confirm the life data’s subjection function of each failure mode. At last I calculate the life indexes and fuzzy reliability indexes of side-abrasion failure of rod string failure, and analyze them generally. Comparing with normal reliability method, I find fuzzy reliability method is more close to the field situation when the failure data belongs to small sample, so it should have more science foundation to direct production practice. Finally I simulate the fuzzy reliability of side-abrasion failure of rod string for polymer drive pump wells. First, establish the fuzzy reliability simulation logic by the fuzzy reliability theory; second, build mathematics model by fuzzy mathematics and probability and statistics; last, I simulate the fuzzy reliability of side-abrasion failure of rod string by Monte Carlo method, get the fuzzy reliability value and its believable scope when believable level is 95%.更多还原