【作者】 陈友龙；

【导师】 刘沛林； 王良健；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 旅游业发展与经济增长关系的研究一直是旅游影响研究的三大内容(经济、环境、社会)之一。从乘数原理发展而来的旅游对经济增长影响的研究,在研究的全面性和适用性上经历了几次飞跃。从简单数学模型(乘数)到复杂数学模型,再到更为实用并在继续完善的复合概念模型,旅游业发展对经济增长影响的评价研究逐渐成熟,并体现出对经济发展战略决策的积极指导意义。但是,尽管几乎所有的理论都认为旅游业发展对经济增长的作用是显著的,然而,在一个长期动态的经济发展过程中,旅游业发展与经济增长的因果关系如何,究竟是旅游业发展先于经济增长还是经济增长先于旅游业发展,其实仍然十分模糊。 改革开放以来,我国旅游业发展与总体经济水平是双向增长的。但旅游业发展与经济增长是否存在因果关系,如果存在,是旅游业发展对经济增长的影响大,还是经济增长对旅游业发展的影响大;旅游业是经济发展的领导部门(即旅游业发展领先于经济增长),还是实际经济产出增长的附属产品(即旅游业发展滞后于经济增长)。我们可以循着这样的思考去探讨,以便于为我国旅游业发展和经济增长的理论决策提供经验支持。 本文对旅游业发展与经济增长关系的国内外研究动态做了系统的阐述,在此基础上,应用格兰杰因果关系检验方法和交叉谱方法分别对我国旅游业发展与经济增长之因果关系、领先和滞后关系进行实证分析,研究结果表明:我国旅游业发展与经济增长存在因果关系,旅游业发展对经济增长的影响显著,而且旅游业发展滞后于经济增长。但协整方程结果表明我国旅游业对经济增长的拉动效果是显著的。就理论而言,旅游业的持续发展对经济增长的贡献基本上得到了一致性认同,故旅游业发展的滞后从长期来看会阻碍经济的增长。为此,本文还提出了一些加快旅游业发展的政策建议,旨在促进我国旅游业发展与经济增长的良性互动。更多还原

【Abstract】 The research on the relationship of the development of tourism and the growth of economy is always one of the influences of tourism researches. The research of influence on economy by tourism that developed from the multiplier theory has experienced several flights in its comprehension and applicability. The process includes the simple mathematic models (multiplier) to complicated mathematic models, then to the more practical and continuing perfect compound concept models. The evaluation of influence on the economy by tourism becomes more and more mature and gradually showed its positive instructional significance on the economic-strategy-making process. However, it is still obscure that how is the causality relationship between the development of tourism and economic growth and whether the development of tourism is in advance of the increasing of economy or on the contrary in a long dynamic economic growth.From our country’s economic reform and opening up, the development of tourism and whole economic level grew bi-directionally. It impelled us to consider that whether is there the causality relationship between the development of tourism and economic growth, if there is, which shows greater impact on another; and whether on earth the tourism is the leading part in the development of economy or it is just an accessory to the output of actual economic growth. Although it might be impossible to make a conclusion, we can still think about it by such methods to provide theoretical basis to the decision-making of tourism development and economic growth.The article uses the theory of Granger causality test and Cross-spectral to analyze the relationship of tourism development and economic growth. The author discovered that there exists the causality relationship between the development of tourism and economic growth and the development of tourism shows greater impact on the economic growth; and also the development of tourism lagged behind the economic growth. Theoretically, it is widely agreed that the enduring development of tourism will contribute to the economic growth, thus the lag of tourism development will block the economic growth in a long run. Based on this conclusion, the author stated some policy suggestions on the development of tourism to adjust and accelerate the economic growth.更多还原