【作者】 杨书娟；

【导师】 梁虹； 黄法苏； 祝安；

【作者基本信息】 贵州师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2005， 硕士

【副题名】以贵州省为例

【摘要】 在分析国内外水资源承载力研究的基础上,本文探讨系统动力学模型构建的基础理论和方法,同时针对贵州省水资源供需特征,建立适应该地区特色的系统动力学模型。具体的研究内容可以概括为: 首先,在明确水资源、水资源承载力概念的基础上,探讨水资源承载力影响因素以及水资源量化方法;其次,结合基础理论,剖析系统动力学模型构建的基本结构;同时针对实例研究区(贵州省),构建完整的系统动力学模型,并在模型上用三种方案对研究区水资源承载力进行仿真模拟;最后探讨提高水资源开发利用的途径。 通过对贵州省水资源承载力的研究,本文得出以下主要结论: ⒈发展经济型方案中,在 2003 到 2020 年贵州省工业总产值将大幅度提高的前提下,本文预测从 2010 年起供水量将小于需水量,到2020 年供水量将很难满足需水量的要求。因此水资源供需矛盾在未来十几年中将成为社会经济发展的巨大阻力。 ⒉节水型方案中,在 2003 到 2020 年贵州省工业总产值将得到一定程度提高的前提下,本文预测从 2015 年起供水量小于需水量。虽然节水方案可以在一定程度上缓解用水供需矛盾,但不能从根本上解决矛盾。 ⒊从协调型方案中得到结论:到 2020 年应将水资源利用率提高到 26%,方可使供需平衡。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of domestic and international studies on water resourcecarrying capacity, this paper discusses the basic theories and methods ofsystem dynamics model, and aiming at supply and demand characteristicsof water resources in Guizhou Province, establishes a system dynamicsmodel with regional characteristics. The research contents are as follows: Firstly, on the basis of concepts of water resources and waterresource carrying capacity, this paper discusses the influencing factors ofwater resource carrying capacity and quantitative means of waterresources, and then combined with basic theories, analyses the basicconstruct of system dynamics model and establishes a complete systemdynamics model of the research area (Guizhou Province), on which asimulation of water resource carrying capacity is carried out in threeprojects, and finally puts forward some advice on improving waterresource exploitation. Through the study on water resource carrying capacity in GuizhouProvince, this paper draws some main conclusions as follows: In the project of economic development type, on the presuppositionthat total industrial production of Guiyang City from the year 2003 to theyear 2020 will be greatly increased, this paper estimates that from theyear 2010 water supply will not be equal to water demand, and that in theyear 2020 water supply will hardly meet water demand. So the inequalityof water resource supply and demand will be a big resistance of socialand economic developments in more than ten years. In the project of water-saving type, on the presupposition that totalindustrial production of Guiyang City from the year 2003 to the year2020 will be slightly increased, this paper estimates that from the year2015 water supply will not be equal to water demand. Although thisproject can shorten the inequality of water supply and demand to a certaindegree, it can’t solve the problem completely. From the project of harmony type, this paper thinks that thepercentage of water resource utilization should be increased to 26% in theyear 2020, which can make water supply and demand in balance.更多还原