【作者】 吴滨；

【导师】 施能；

【作者基本信息】 南京信息工程大学 ， 气象学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 本文用1961—2003年福建省35个气象观测站的降水量和气温资料以及1951—年2003年福州、厦门、建阳、南平、浦城降水量及气温资料,1961—2002年国家气象中心提供的2°×2°网格点的海温资料,北半球5°×5°500hPa高度场资料,副高5个变量参数资料等,通过趋势分析、EOF分解、旋转EOF分解及滑动均方差、相关分析等多种统计方法和天气学方法,研究了福建省降水量及气温的气候变化特点以及雨季降水的前期物理量场特征。 本文首先研究了福建省年、季降水量的气候变化特征。研究表明:福建省全省平均年降水量四十多年的长期变化趋势为较弱的正趋势,其中闽南地区正的趋势较明显。就各季而言,早春季、夏季、秋冬季降水均有弱的增加趋势,雨季全省降水的变化趋势是减少的。 旋转EOF分析表明,年、雨季、夏季降水都可以分为3个区,但范围有所差异;早春季、秋冬季降水可以分为2个区。年降水量北部区最多,南部区最少,但南部区降水增加的趋势较明显。 文中研究了年及各个季节降水的年代际变化特征。就全省年降水量的年际变化而言,其表现为:60年代至80年代末降水基本上以偏少为主,仅在70年代初降水偏多一些,90年代以后降水以偏多为主,但波动很大,早涝表现较突出。各个季节降水量的年代际变化均有所差异,90年代以后夏、秋冬季与年降水的表现较相似,均以偏多为主,波动大,而早春及雨季降水以偏少为主。 文中还研究了不同季节各个降水分区的代表站50多年降水的滑动均方差,研究表明年降水量北部及中部区从80年代起极易出现异常早涝,而南部区80年代初以后异常旱涝年开始减少。各个季节不同分区降水的变率均有所差异。 由于雨季对全年降水量的影响至关重要,因此文中研究了雨季降水前期物理量场的变化特征。研究表明前一年冬季及初春西太平洋副热带高压的变化、赤道中东太平洋前一年秋冬季海温的变化以及冬季风的强弱均对福建省雨季降水趋势的南北分布有影响。青藏高原多雪年引起副高北移的时间比常年偏迟将有利于福建雨季降水的偏多,反之则偏少。 最后文章研究了福建省气温的年、季变化特征,表明全省年平均气温呈明显的增暖趋势。其年代际变化为:50、60年代全省平均气温为负趋势;70年代以后气温开始上升,80年代气温的上升趋势明显起来,而90年代以后气温的增加趋势进一步加强,趋势系数达到了0.652。春季、秋季、冬季气温均呈增暖趋势,而夏季全省有一半地区气温为负趋势,冬季是全年增暖趋势最明显的季节。文章还研究了各个季节气温的年代际变化特征。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study analyzes the climate variability of precipitation and temperature in Fujian province in the recent 50 years, and further investigates the predictability of the rainy season by analyzing the characteristics of physical fields and indexes prior to the rainy season. The data used in this study include the surface observational precipitation and temperature in 35 stations (observation period:1961-2003) and 5 other stations (observation period: 1951-2003, i.e. Fuzhou, Xiamen, Jianyang, Nanping and Pucheng) of Fujian province; global 2° × 2° grid Sea Surface Temperature (observation period: 1961-2002) provided by National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), Northern hemisphere 5° × 5° 500hPa grid geopotential height (observation period: 1961-2002), and 5 parameters of subtropical high (Period: 1961-2002). In order to disclose the intrinsic relation between the climate variability and the general circulation, several statistical and synoptic methods are utilized in this study, such as Tendency Analysis (TA), Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition, Rotated EOF (REOF), running Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Correlation Analysis (CA).The interannual and seasonal climate variability of precipitation in Fujian province shows that the 40-year yearly precipitation generally tends to increase in the long-term tendency, and the positive tendency is more significant in the southern Fujian. Seasonally, the precipitation in the early spring, summer, fall and winter all indicates the weak increase. Precipitation decreases in the rainy season in whole province.REOF analysis shows that there exist 3 regions of the dominant precipitation patterns for the precipitation of the whole year, the raining season and summer, respectively, but the locations and areas are different for the three different spans. There also exist 2 regions of the dominant pattern in the early spring, fall and winter, respectively. The annual precipitation is heaviest in northern Fujian and lightest in southern Fujian while the positive tendency is more significant in southern Fujian.The decadal variability of precipitation is also investigated in this study. In the decadal scale of precipitation of the whole Fujian, the precipitation basically decreases from 1960’s to the late of 80’s, except slight increase in the early 1970’s. The precipitation exist positive anomaly after 1990’s, however, the oscillation is sharp and the flood and drought is pronounced from year to year. The decadal variations of precipitation are different in different season. The precipitation of summer, fall and winter is similar to the one of the whole year, i.e., positive anomaly, large oscillation, while negative anomaly in the early spring and raining season.The running RMSE analysis of the representative stations in respective region is更多还原