【作者】 石万清；

【导师】 陶维青；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 电力系统短期负荷预测是调度中心制订发电计划及发电厂报价的依据,也是能量管理系统(EMS)的重要组成部分,对电力系统的运行、控制和计划都有着非常重要的影响,其预测精度直接影响到了电网及各发电厂的经济效益。 由于电力负荷受诸多因素影响,如当前负荷状况、天气状况、节假日、重大经济及政治事件等,为提高短期电力负荷预测的精度,本文综合考虑了影响电力负荷的诸多因素,分析了适用于电力系统短期负荷预测的多种预测模型及其优缺点,提出了将径向基函数网络和模糊逻辑两种方法相结合的预测方法,并用Visual C++和MATLAB混合编程实现基于该算法的短期电力负荷预测程序,结果表明,与常规的预测方法相比,预测精度有了较大提高,效果较好。 此外,本文实现了Visual C++与MATLAB的接口。利用Visual C++6.0提供的控件设计人机界面,利用MATLAB工作在后台实现复杂的计算功能。这样既可以拥有良好的人机界面,又可以有较高的软件开发效率。更多还原

【Abstract】 Short-term load forecasting of electric power system is not only the basis for the distribution centers to plan power generation and the power plants to quote price, but also an important part of energy management system. Furthermore, short-term load forecasting has all-important effect on power system, such as operation, control and plan. The prediction accuracy has direct influence on economy benefits of the grid and power plants.Electric power is affected by many factors, such as current load status, weather status, festival-holiday, important economy and politics event, and etc. For improving the prediction accuracy of short-term load forecasting, many forecast models applied to power system short-term load forecasting and their characteristics are analyzed, a load forecasting strategy based on RBF neural network and fuzzy logic is proposed considering the integrated effect of many factors. The load forecasting program based on the proposed forecasting strategy is carried out by combined Visual C++ and MATLAB. The results show better prediction accuracy than traditional models.Additionally, both VC++ and MATLAB are adopted in this paper. using the man-machine conversion interface of Visual C++, complicated computation is done at the background with MATLAB tool. so both good man-machine conversation interface and higher exploitation efficiency of software are acquired.更多还原