【作者】 吴坚隽；

【导师】 俞自由；

【作者基本信息】 东华大学 ， 企业管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 经济增长与保险需求之间存在某种规律,揭示这一规律有助于分析不同国家(地区)保险发展水平存在的差异,也有助于对某些保险市场未来的发展做出预测,因此具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。论文以“预期效用理论”为基础,创新性地利用“S型对数关系反推法”验证了保险收入弹性与经济增长的库兹涅茨特征,在此基础上分别建立寿险和非寿险模型,并描述了该模型对应曲线的分析功能和预测功能。论文的主要研究成果与创新之处如下: 1.在Damian Ward关于成熟市场(OECD 9国)研究的基础上,运用“Grange因果检验”模型,对发展中市场(亚洲8个经济体)进行实证分析,从实证角度进一步丰富了经济增长促进保险需求的结论。 2.运用“预期效用理论”分析经济增长与边际保险消费倾向的关系,并借助Panel Data分析模型,从实证上局部验证了低收入和高收入经济体边际保险消费倾向较低,而中等收入经济体的边际消费倾向较高的结论。 3.以成果2为基础,分析经济增长与保险收入弹性的关系,借助“饱和增长曲线”模型,创新性地利用“S型对数关系反推法”验证了两者之间存在的库兹涅茨特征,即随着人均GDP的增长,人均保费相对于人均GDP变化的反应程度呈现微弱——强烈——微弱的变化趋势。而方法本身也为具有库兹涅茨特征的曲线验证提供借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 There is a certain law between economic growth and insurance demand~1. Discover the law helps to analyze the diversified insurance development level within different countries or regions and helps to forecast the future potentiality of the certain markets, which plays an impotent role in theory and reality. This paper, on the basis of "Expected Utility Theory", employs the a new method called "the Derivate course between two Logarithmic variable with S-shaped relation" (DLS hereafter) to testify the Kuznets characteristic (inverted U-shaped relation) within the elastic of Insurance Premium Revenue vs. GDP (elasticity of IPRG hereafter) and the economic growth, and furthermore, this paper establishes the life insurance and non-life insurance model respectively on the basis of the Kuznets characteristic and expatiates the analysis function and the forecasting function of curves derived by the models. The main results and originalities of this paper are as follows:1. Based on Damian Ward’s research on the industrialized markets(9 countries in OECD), this paper makes use of the "Grange test" to empirically study the emerging markets (8 economies in Asia) and the results enrich the fact that economic growth enhances the insurance demand.2. Managing "Expected Utility Theory" to analyze the relationship between economic growth and marginal propensity to insurance consume (MPIC) , this paper makes an empirical research with the help of Panel Data model, and the results that the MPIC in the high and low income economies are relatively low, while the MPIC in the middle income economies is relatively high are partly verified3. On the basis of "Saturation growth curve", this paper employs the a new method called DLS to testify the Kuznets characteristic between elastic of IPRG and the economic growth, that is, with the growth of per capita GDP, the response degree that the per capita premium changes to per capita GDP appears a faint —strong —faint tendency. Meanwhile, this method sheds light on the testing of the curve with Kuznets characteristic.4. Establish the life insurance and non-life insurance model and plot the curve respectively on the basis of the Kuznets characteristic between elastic of IPRG and the economic growth. From the curve evaluation, we find that the variation tendency between life insurance curve and non-life insurance curve differs from each other, with the growth of per capita GDP, the change of life insurance curve, namely the change elastic of Life-IPRG is more sensitive than that of the non-life insurance.5. This paper enriches the curves’ function from the aspects of analysis and prediction. From the view of analysis, the curve can effectively reflect the insurance development level of a certain economy, no matter long-term or short-run and no matter life insurance or non-life insurance. From the view of prediction, short-term prediction is more accurate than the long-term forecast no matter to the economies or regional organizations, and moreover, the economies’ prediction is more accurate than the regional organizations’ prediction, no matterlong-term or short-run. Furthermore, the curve can accurately forecast the insurance future potentiality of an economy or a regional organization when its elastic of IPRG approaches to the curve.This paper consists of 5 chapters, individually but logically. First chapter is the literature review of the influence factors of insurance demand and the concept of economic growth promotes the insurance demand and then summarizes the validating method of Kuznets inverted-U curve. The second chapter analyzes the relationship between economic growth and insurance demand by combining the experience data and empirical results. And mainly evaluates the pushing affect of economic growth to insurance demand from the empirical aspect, which was set as the start point of the paper. Chapter three studies the MPIC first and then employs the new method called DLS to testify the Kuznets characteristic between elastic of IPRG and the economic growth for both life and non-life更多还原