铸币税及人民币铸币税问题研究

【作者】 唐光明；

【导师】 罗军；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 一、本文的主要内容及观点 本文共分四章,基本上按基本概念、计量模型、经济效应和现实分析的思路展开。每一章的内容基本上都是独立的,但都是围绕一个中心线索,即铸币税这一中心。 第一章着重阐述了铸币税内涵及其相关的基本概念。本章共分四节。第一节按照货币金融发展历程,依次对金属铸币时代的铸币税概念、信用货币制度下的铸币税概念进行了界定,并指出狭义铸币税与广义铸币税概念的联系与区别。金属铸币时代的铸币税可以称之为“铸币收益”,而铸币税更广泛的涵义是从货币发行中得到的货币使用权;而广义铸币税与狭义铸币税概念区别的关键在于货币涵盖范围的不同。第二节介绍了通货膨胀税与铸币税的联系与区别,并分析了二者的数量关系,并指出一般概念的铸币税是包含通货膨胀税的。第三节在深入理解铸币税与铸币税收益概念的基础上,探讨了铸币税的不同归属以及铸币税与税收的区别,并分析了货币发行收入的直接和间接收益。第四节对铸币税跨越国界所产生的国际铸币税概念进行了解释。 第二章是本文的模型部分,介绍了铸币税相关模型。本章共两节。第一节介绍最大化铸币税模型。在忽略经济增长和货币化以及公众完全理性预期的假设下,通货膨胀率与铸币税存在一一对应的关系,并且随着通货膨胀率上升,铸币税呈现先增加后降低的趋势。本文利用卡甘货币需求函数,推导出政府能够得到的最大化铸币税,并给出均衡解;然后放开理性预期,讨论了意外通货膨胀对最大化铸币税的影响。在政府既定铸币税收入水平上,可能存在同时满足条件的高、低两个通货膨胀率,当政府试图通过意外通货膨胀率获得更高的铸币税收入时,低通货膨胀具有稳定性,经济体趋同于一个通货膨胀率较高的新均衡;而高通货膨胀均衡是不稳定的,它最终将使经济陷入一种不断重复的恶性通货膨胀之中。第二节介绍了在实际中政府估算铸币2税的方法。在不存在经济增长和货币化的经济中,铸币税收入等于基础货币存量乘以名义利率;如果考虑经济增长和货币化过程,铸币税的税率等于经济增长贡献率、货币化速度和名义利率的加总。但准确计量铸币税是困难的,原因铸币税“税基”存在多个货币存量提供选择,而每一块货币存量总不能完全的体现铸币税“税基”的大小。第三章分析了铸币税的经济效应和福利效应。本章共分四小节。第一节依次分析了铸币税在征收过程中出现的国内经济效应。首先,央行通过增发货币能够主动的产生扩张货币效应。其次是弥补财政赤字效应。政府收支存在跨期预算平衡,铸币税收入是财政不可缺少的收入来源;政府可以通过增发基础货币获取铸币税收入以弥补财政赤字,通常是采用国债的货币化形式;政府可以从财政赤字货币化中得到的铸币税数量要受制于三个因素,同时还必须考虑公众的通货膨胀承受力。再次是铸币税增加收入效应。萧条时期征收铸币税可以同时达到货币投放与扩大内需两大政策目标,从而重新启动经济,在迅速增加总产出的同时,有效地增加企业和家庭收入,并增加社会的财富总量。最后铸币税还能产生吸引投资、促进经济增长和价格效应等其他经济效应。第二节分析国际铸币税的成本与收益。以美圆为例,实证分析了美圆的国际铸币税成本与收益,并得出结论:尽管巨额国际铸币税收入的不利后果是使国内经济失去独立性、巨额的外债和国际收支赤字,以及随时可能爆发的铸币税的逆转风险,但是由此带来的直接铸币税收入和间接铸币税收益所产生的经济利益却是不可衡量的。第三节分析了铸币税社会福利成本。在不存在经济增长和货币深化过程的经济中,铸币税收入主要来自通货膨胀,而通货膨胀的存在会使公众的持币成本增加,人们或者通过增加交易频率的方式,或者通过寻求替代交易方式来规避持币成本,结果是人们对真实货币存量的需求减少,于是整个社会就相当于减少了利用货币生产力的机会,其最终必然减少整个社会的“持币剩余”;通货膨胀所带来的社会福利净损失还包括通货膨胀引起的菜单成本、不完全理性预期下资源扭曲配置的成本和信息不完全情况下通货膨胀所带来的经济波动的风险成本等。3第四章分析了人民币铸币税问题。本章共分三节。第一节讲述人民币的铸币税收入概况。中国二十多年来金融增长,货币存量(M2)年间增速达 25%,产生巨额铸币税收入,有力的支撑我国经济基本建设,并使财政赤字保持在一个相对较低的水平;并指出经济货币化速度很快却未引发通货膨胀,其原因一是中国改革之初的货币化程度极低,一个是高速增长的经济本身就能够不断创造出对货币的需求。最后选取一个简单的数据说明实际中铸币税的具体运用。第二节分析了电子货币产生对人民币铸币税收入的影响。电子货币是通过销售终端、不同的电子设备之间以及在公开网络上执行支付的“储值”和预付支付机制。其发行和流通,将在相当程度上取代实体现金,将会导致流通中现金量的减少和商业银行在中央银行准备金的减少,从而减少我国中央银行铸币税收入。第三节分析人民币的国际铸币税问题。通过人民币国际铸币税成本收益分析,指出人民币应承担起稳定亚洲金融与经济的职责,首先实现人民币的区域化,为人民币的国际?更多还原

【Abstract】 1.The main content and viewpionts The thesis consists of four chapters: the concepts, econometricalmodel and economic effect & evidence analysis. Chapter 1 underlines the seigniorage and related basic concepts. Itconsists of four sectors. In sector 1, along the course of the developmentof finance, I define the concept of seigniorage in the period of metal mintand coinage, and point out the correlation &difference between theseigniorages of narrow sense and broad sense. In sector 2, I introduce thecorrelation&difference between inflation-tax and seigniorage, and analysethe numerical relation. In sector 3, on the basis of deep analysis of thecomncepts of seigniorage and the profit of seigniorage, I explore thedifferent adscription of seigniorage and the difference betweenseigniorage and common tax, and analyse the direct and indirect profit ofthe issuance of currency. In sector 4, I explain the concept of internationalseigniorage. Chapter 2 is about the models. The relative models aboutseigniorage are introduced. It consists of three sectors. Sector 1introduces the model of maximizing seigniorage. Ignoring economicdevelopment and monetary-deepening, and on the assumption of therational expectation, by means of the monetary demand function of Cagan,deduce that the maximium seigniorage government can get, and theequilibrium result is given. Then the rational expectation is introduced, Idiscuss the influence the unexpected inflation exerts on the maximizedseigniorage. Sector 2 introduces the approach for the governmentestimating the seigniorage in practice. In the economy ofnon-development and monetary-deepening, the seigniorage incomeequals the basic currency capacity multiples the nominal intrerest. If theeconomic development and monetary-deepening is considerd, theseigniorage rate equals the sum of the contribution rate, the velocity ofmonetary-deepening and the nominal intrerest rate. Chapter 3 analyses the economic effect and welfare effect ofseigniorage. It consists of four sectors. Sector 1 analyses the effect ofdomestic economy. Sequently, the currency expansion effect, financedeficit-reparation effect, income-increase effect and other effects areanalysed. Sector 2 uses the dollar as an example to analyse the cost andprofit of the international seigniorage of dollar. Then I draw theconclusion that in spite of the unadvantageous results as the loss of thedependence of domestic economy, large amount of foreign debts anddeficit in the balance of payments, and the potential risk of seignioragereverse, the economic profit is substantial that brought by the direct andindirect seigniorage.Sector 3 analyses the loss brought by the seigniorage.Sector 4 briefly explores the relation between seigniorage income and theasset of the central bank. Chapter 4 analyses the reality of the RMB seigniorage income. Itconsists of three sectors. Sector 1 reviews the profile of China’sseigniorage income over the 20 years. It is pointed out that the substantialseigniorage from the process of monetary-deepening is the main source ofthe central finance income, and has strangly supported China’seconomy construction as well as retained the financial deficit at arelatively low level. Sector 2 analyses the international seigniorage ofRMB. by the cost-profit analysis of the international seigniorage of RMB,it is pointed out that RMB has taken the esponsibility of stablizing Asia’sfinance and economy, and its tendency of internationalization isadvoidable. Sector 3 gives the policy proposal on the internationalizationof RMB. In views of the selection of the topic and the angle of reseach, thethesis has defined the seigniorage and related conceptions in detail, andanalyses the related aspects about seigniorage. On the background ofshort domestic reseach of seigniorage, by analysis of the basic concepts, ithas systematicly analysed the econometrical model and economic effectof seigniorage. The seigniorage is a complicated and professional problem. Limitedby the length of the thesis, the short time and my limited capability, onlythe更多还原