航空项目运行过程中的风险识别及应对

【作者】 田广明；

【导师】 李原；

【作者基本信息】 西北工业大学 ， 航空宇航制造工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 航空项目风险管理的目标是控制和处理项目运行中出现的风险,防止和减少损失,减轻或消除风险对航空项目的不利影响,以最低成本取得对项目保障的满意结果,保障项目顺利进行并实现其预定目标。 通常,航空项目都是大型复杂项目,具有技术复杂、周期长、涉及人员多、地理分布广等特点。传统的风险识别和应对方法无法适应航空项目的上述特点。这就使得其风险识别及应对问题变得十分复杂。 本文着重对德尔菲法进行研究和改进,并将灰色局势决策法运用到航空项目风险对策决策中,较好地解决了航空项目的风险识别及应对问题。 本文主要工作如下: ● 系统的分析了航空项目的特点,总结了项目运行过程中的风险特点。分析了传统的风险识别及应对方法。 ● 对于复杂航空项目的风险识别问题,本文分析了传统德尔菲法,在此基础上,建立了专家意见集成模型,该模型解决了传统德尔菲法容易削弱专家原有见解的独立性,以及并未对群体意见的一致性给出一个判断标准的问题。 ● 对风险应对方法进行了系统的研究,将灰色局势决策法运用到航空项目风险应对决策中,从系统的角度出发对各个对策进行综合分析,选择过程中考虑到各个评价要素对评价目标的相对权重,解决了目前航空项目风险应对过程过多地依靠决策者个人经验的现状。 ● 采用Internet技术、ASP、ASP.NET、SQL SERVER等技术,初步建立了航空项目风险识别及应对子系统。更多还原

【Abstract】 The target of aviation project’s risk management is controlling and coping with risk (emerging in the running of the project), preventing and decreasing losses, mitigating or eliminating detrimental effects of risk, and acquiring satisfactory consequences to the project’s securing guarantee at the minimum cost, so as to ensure the project to carry cut successfully.Usually, aviation projects are all large scale and complicated, in the feature of complicated technique, lasting period, singly and small batch manufacture primarily, great personal is involved, and vast region distribution and so on. So traditional risk identification and management methods are unable to adapt to the feature of aviation project mentioned above, that makes risk identification and management issues complicated.This thesis focuses on the research and improvement to Delphi Method and Gray Decision Method, and applies these methods to aviation project, which resolve aviation product project’s identification and management issues.The main work in this thesis as follows:● Analyze the feature of aviation project at present and the risk feature in the running of the project systematically. Analyze the existing risk identification and management methods.● As to risk identification issues of complicated aviation project, this thesis analyzes the traditional Delphi method, and on the basis, establishes the model for method judgment standard to the consistency on experts’ opinion.● Carry on systematic research to risk management method; apply Gray Decision Method, to the risk management decision of aviation project; synthesize and analyze each decision proceeding from systematic angle; consider relative; synthesize of each assessment factor to assessment target in the process of selection; resolve the status that the risk management process of aviation project at present is short of theory basis and completely depends on the personal experience of experts or persons who charge of the project.● A subsystem of risk identification and management of aviation project is established preliminarily by using the technology of internet, asp, ASP.NET, and SQL server and so on.更多还原