【作者】 韩晖；

【导师】 龚道溢；

【作者基本信息】 北京师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 台风暴雨是台风灾害的主要形式之一,同时也是我国中东部地区的一种重要降水类型。研究中国台风暴雨的气候特征,首要的意义在于防灾减灾,另外对辨别和把握我国气候变化的态势也有重要价值。本文采用气候统计诊断方法,分析了 1951-2001 年间对中国产生影响的台风及相应的降水情况,总结出近 50 年中国台风暴雨的时空特征;并在此基础上对影响其变化的气候背景因素等进行了探讨。主要研究内容和结论如下:(1)中国台风暴雨的地理分布存在很大的空间差异。暴雨发生频次的总体特征是由东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐减少,在同一纬度沿海地区的频次最高。台风暴雨强度在最大值上没有太大的地域差别;在平均强度方面,华北和东北南部的一些地区反而普遍较华南、华东地区为高。(2)中国台风暴雨的雨季是 5 至 11 月,其中 7 至 9 月是高峰期;台风暴雨频次存在很强的年际振荡和年代际的起伏;长期来看,频次和强度都呈现出上升的趋势,但在统计上是不显著的;另外,暴雨的频次和强度等存在一些准周期,但同样是不显著的。(3)台风系统自身的特征对台风暴雨的表现有多方面的影响。就台风暴雨的频次而言,台风频次和每次台风影响的范围和时间都是重要因子,而后者隐含了台风的路径、移速及消亡速度等多方面的作用。(4)海洋对台风及台风暴雨的影响是不言而喻的。太平洋海表温度异常与中国台风暴雨变化之间存在着制约关系,并且台风暴雨活动的变化滞后于海表温度的变化一至两个季节。ENSO 与中国台风暴雨事件与之间也存在较好的持续性相关关系,El Ni?o 年台风暴雨偏少,La Ni?a 年台风暴雨则相对偏多。这种关系在 El Ni?o 时期尤为突出。(5)大气环流背景是影响降水的重要因素,本文选择海平面气压、500hPa位势高度和 30hPa 纬向风三个气候变量分别代表低、中、高层大气环流背景。这几个变量都与中国台风暴雨变化存在明显的联系。它们之间共同的特点是,台风暴雨与前一年冬季的环流场存在隔季遥相关,与夏季的环流场存在同期相关,而且在某些地区特别突出。此间包含了西太平洋副热带高压和 QBO 这两个重要环流系统。对中国气候有重要影响的西太平洋副高,其显著作用是在夏季与台风暴雨的同期负相关:如果夏季西太平洋副热带高压偏强,中国的台风暴雨活动则偏弱。QBO 是气候变化的另一强信号系统,通过研究我国台风暴雨异常年与 QBO东西风阶段的对应关系,我们发现 QBO 与中国台风暴雨的关系可以归纳为两个方面:(a)当 QBO 处于全年东风或由前冬西风转夏季东风的阶段时,该年台风暴雨雨季(7-9 月)所发生的台风暴雨频次很可能异常偏少;(b)当 QBO 处于全年西风阶段时,该年台风暴雨总频次很可能异常偏多。更多还原

【Abstract】 The severe rainfall company with a typhoon is the primary cause of itscatastrophic influences. At the same time, typhoon torrential rain is a kind ofimportant precipitation form in Middle and Eastern China. Studying the climatecharacteristic of the Chinese typhoon torrential rain, primary meaning lies in disasterprevention and reduction; In addition, there is important value to distinguishing andunderstanding the climate change of our country. This study deals with typhoons that influence China and focus on correspondingprecipitation situation during 1951-2001, with the method of climate diagnosing. Itsummarizes the spatial-temporal characteristics of the Chinese typhoon torrential rainin the latest about 50 years; and discusses the influencing climatic background factorswhich impact on its variation. The major conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) The geographical distribution of the Chinese typhoon torrential rain is veryuneven. The frequency of typhoon torrential rain shows a decrease trend fromsoutheast coastal district to the northwest inland gradually; and the frequency in thecoastal area is the highest at the same latitude. There isn’t evident distinction indifference region, on the maximum intensity of typhoon torrential rain; in averageintensity, some areas of North China and south of Northeast China are generallyhigher than South China or East China. (2) The main season of Chinese typhoon torrential rain is from May to November,especially between July and September. The frequency of typhoon torrential rain hasstrong interannual and interdecadal oscillation. On the long terms, the frequency andintensity of typhoon torrential rain both demonstrate the trend of increasing, but notsignificant in statistics; In addition, the frequency and intensity of torrential rain showsome cycles, unsignificantly yet. (3) The systematic characters of the typhoon have influences on the behavior oftyphoon torrential rain in many aspects. As regards the frequency of the typhoontorrential rain, typhoon frequency and the range and time that typhoon influenced areboth important factor; And the latter include the route, move speed and disappearingspeed of a typhoon. (4) The oceanic influences on the typhoon and the torrential rain are self-evident.There is restricting relations between the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatureanomaly and Chinese typhoon torrential rain variation. And the activity of torrentialrain lags behind SST change, about one or two seasons. There is a constant relationbetween ENSO and Chinese typhoon torrential rain as well. In El Ni?o phase, theannual frequency of typhoon torrential rain seems to be lower; In La Ni?a phase, it’sreverse. This relation is more evidence in El Ni?o phase. II<WP=5>(5) The atmospheric circulation background is one of the important factors thatinfluencing precipitation. This study select SLP, 500hPa potential height and 30hPalatitudinal wind, to represent low, middle and high layer of atmospheric circulationvariable respectively. These variables all have obvious connections with the Chinesetyphoon torrential rain variation. There are common characteristics between typhoontorrential rain and each of them, that is, a teleconnection exist between the previouswinter circulation field and the typhoon torrential rain; and a contemporary relationexist in summer as well. These relations are prominent in some location. Especially,for Western Pacific subtropical High, that is an important circulation systeminfluencing China, also have a remarkable relation to the typhoon torrential rain insummer. If the WPSH leans towards strongly in summer, the typhoon torrential rainover China is on the weak phase. We also studied the relationship between typhoontorrential rain and QBO, and found this relation can be summed up for two respects:(a) As QBO is at the whole year east wind phase or transferred from west to east, thefrequency of typ更多还原