【作者】 刘勇；

【导师】 魏龙；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 跨国并购正以惊人的速度席卷全球，并购的规模也越来越大。跨国并购已成为跨国直接投资的主要方式。 这种跨越国界的强强联合，在产生惊人效益的同时，也伴随着巨大的风险，比如并购后的发展战略、并购后的整合等等不确定性因素，尤其是企业的价值评估。于是人们发展了各种各样的并购理论，来指导、解释这样或那样的并购行为。对跨国并购的风险评价方式多种多样，但是定性的多，定量的少，零散的多，系统的少。 对跨国并购的评估，最重要的莫过于对并购方和被并购方风险、价值的评估。传统的企业价值评估方式有收益法、市场法以及资产法。而收益法以其理论优势和灵活性最常用于价值评估，投资人认可价值是将未来回报以反映风险水平的回报率折现而得出。于是预测收购企业以及目标企业的将来回报率，就成了其中的关键步骤。 股本互换是跨国并购特别是大型并购普遍采用的支付方式，而资本资产定价模型(CAPM)是判断股票或股票组合的风险，以及预测预期回报率的权威工具，所以对于普遍通过股本互换的跨国并购中的风险评价，以及跨国并购中的价值、风险评估，仍有很好的应用意义。 CAPM从诞生到现在，经历了几十年的发展和验证，也遇到了一些疑问和不足，于是MCAPM就应运而生。尤其值得注意的是，传统的常数(固定值)B系数CAPM也遇到了疑问，这就需要在应用CAPM时，进行必要的修正。 CAPM的最原始动因，是通过建立单指数模型，即预测资本市场某只股票的β系数，来达到预测该股票的收益及风险的目的。本文把它推向更广阔应用市场，CAPM提供了一种思路，资本市场只不过是它的发源地而已，可以把它推广到资本市场的“类似市场”，比如债券市场、行业市场，而且还可以冲破国家的界限，放到国际市场，比如国家风险市场等，关键看如何灵活的使用它。 CAPM导致了现代金融理论的一场革命。经典资本资产定价模型只是通过预测一国内部的系统风险，来预测金融资产的未来收益。因而复杂得多的跨国并购，在考虑它们的系统风险的同时，不能忽略国家风险以及由于文化等因素导致的风险，于是CAPM就成了的一个评估这些风险的有用工具。本文在讨论通过CAPM来评价这些风险的同时，将这些风险通过模型中系数的调整，以及将它们融成一体，达到只需通过CAPM，来简洁地评论跨国并购的各种风险的目的。武汉理工大学硕十学位论文 在专注于评价上市公司的跨国并购活动后本文指出，通过调整日系数，以及利用可比公司作为参考等等，CAPM几乎可以应用于所有类型的公司和所有方式并购活动评估。关键词:跨国并购，收益法，资产定价模型，风险评价二污更多还原

【Abstract】 Transnational mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have overwhelmingly swept the whole world, and the scales of which are becoming larger and larger. Transnational M&As has been the main manner of foreign direct investment (FDI).To this kind of large-scale transnational M&As, it could be expected that surprising proceeds could be held accompanying with serious risk, such as developing strategy, integrity after M&As, especially for value assessment, so variable value assessment theories are developed to direct and explain kinds of M&As. Such variable kinds of assessment manners are more qualitative than quantitative, more scattered than systematicTo the transitional M&As, it is most important to assess the risk and value of the merging and merged parts. Traditional value assessments manners include proceed method, market method and assets method. Proceed method is mostly popular for its theory advantage and flexibility, and widely accepted by investors. So return rate assessment for merging and merged companies, which is also critical factor of proceed method, becomes the most important step.Share-interchange is a popular payment for large scale transnational M&As, while CAPM is an authoritative tool to asses stock risk, to forecast the future return. So CAPM is also a useful tool applying in transnational M&As.Since its naissance, CAPM has experienced many years’ development and validation, and there have been some doubts and demerits, this propelled CAPM developed into MCAPM. Further more traditional constant (fixed) β coefficient CAPM also arise doubt, all these make us necessary to modify CAPM during its application.CAPM is originated for establishing a single index model to forecast the risk of certain stock by forecasting β coefficient of the stock. This paper expands the application of CAPM in more broad and similar market, such as bond market and industrial market, and to international market as state risk market, all these depend on its flexible application.CAPM has induced a revolution of modern financial theories. Classical CAPM is just used to forecast the future return of financial assets by assessing systematical risk in one country. To the much complex transnational M&As, other risks, such as state risk and cultural risk should also not be neglected as well as systematical risk, and CAPM is just such kind of valuable tool. In this paper all these risks have notonly been discussed, but also combined into integrity for terse assessment about transnational M&As.And after devotion to the assessment of stock company about its transnational activities, through adjustment of β coefficient, or comparable company as reference, CAPM can be used to assess almost all kinds of companies and manners about M&As.更多还原