【作者】 吴娟；

【导师】 单汨源；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 我国从上个世纪80年代起就开始了基础设施领域的改革，从改革提供公共产品与服务企业的现代企业管理制度到改革公共产品与服务的价格体系与质量标准；从引入市场竞争机制到鼓励民间资本参与竞争；从政府供给到政府监督；为了提高公共产品与服务的质量，为了满足公众对公用事业的需求，我国一直在探索着公用事业行业改革的最佳途径。 公私合作模式，即PPP(Public Private Partnerships)模式是目前最流行的公用事业改革模式，它的特点是私人部门是主要的公用服务与产品的提供者，公共部门则是采购者与监督者。它的基本实现形式包括：运营维护协议(O&M)、管理协议、租赁购买、BOO／BOT、特许经营、非公共机构拥有等。 本文在分析公用事业项目以及公私合作(下文简称PPP)模式的特征的基础上： 分析了基于PPP模式的公用事业项目风险识别的特点，识别了基于PPP模式的公用事业项目风险因素，包括环境风险、金融风险、技术风险、市场风险、管理风险以及不可抗力风险，但当PPP模式的实现方式发生变化时，合作方面临的风险因素会发生变化； 分析了现有项目风险评估方法——层次分析法的优缺点，针对层次分析法存在的缺点进行改进，提出了用层次群组分析法来评估基于PPP模式的公用事业项目风险； 采用了计算机语言Delphi编写了层次分析法实现程序，用于检验判断矩阵的一致性，并求出具体的CR值； 本文综合了国内外公用事业项目采用PPP模式时风险分担情况，给出了一张基于PPP模式的公用事业项目风险分配表。另外，我们也可以通过增加项目风险管理能力、风险应对或承受能力、项目管理成员素质来减免风险因素。 本文最后以长沙市污水处理项目为应用实例，说明了本文的研究以及理论方法具有现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 China has being reformed the infrastructure since 1980s, from reforming the modern management system of enterprises that offer public products and service to the pricing system and quality criterion of public products and service; from introducing to the competition mechanism of the market to encouraging private’s capital participate in; from the government supplying to supervising; China keeps exploring the best way of the reform of public utilities to improve the quality of public products and the service,and to satisfy masses’ demands for public utilities.The model of Public Private Partnerships, that is PPP (Public Private Partnerships) model is the most popular model of public utilities reforming now. Its characteristic is the private department is public service and provider of the products, and the public department is purchaser and supervisor. Its way includes: Operate and Maintain (O&M), The Agreement of Management, Lease Buying, BOO/BOT, Franchise, non- public organization etc.Based on analysing the characteristics of the public utilities project and the mode of Public Private Partnerships (PPP), this paper has analysed the characteristic of the project risk identification of public utilities based on PPP, has identified the project risk factor of public utilities based on PPP, including environmental risk, financial risks, technological risk, market risk, management risk and force majeure risk, however, when realization way of PPP changes, the risk factor faced in cooperation will change;Firstly, by analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of the Analytic Hiberarchy Process, which is the method of project risk assessment, this paper supposed the Analytic Hiberarchy Group Process to assess the project risk of public utilities based on PPP;Secondly, this paper developed a program of AHP in computer language — Delphito examin the consistency of judging matrix, and computed the value of CR.Thirdly, supposed an allocation of risks was supposed after summary the experiences of domestic and international’s public utilities project based on PPP. In addition we can through increase project risk managerial ability, merit of project manager, reduce or remit the risk factor too.Finaly, the Changsha sewage disposal project as the using esample to validate the realistic meanings of the research and theory method in this paper.更多还原