【作者】 胡松；

【导师】 孙焱林；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 数量经济学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 外商直接投资是促进我国经济发展的重要原因,随着我国改革开放的深入,我国吸引外商直接投资逐年增长,并在国民经济的各个行业和地区中都发挥着重要的作用。 正因为外商直接投资在国民经济中的重要作用,近年来,国内关于已经外商直接投资的文章越来越多,总体上说,这类对外商直接投资区位投资环境的研究主要沿着三条路线:一是工商管理学方面,主要通过问卷调查或者案例已经,考察外商直接投资的动机、决策过程和区位因子;二是经济计量方法,主要是利用系统的数据和统计模型,揭示外商直接投资与各种区域特征变量之间的关系;三是公司地理学方法,主要是考察跨国公司海外投资的空间行为、部门间的空间联系、相互作用及其组织结构。而随着统计学及统计数据的官方公布加之计算机技术的飞速发展,经济计量模型运用于外商直接投资的区位投资环境研究日益成为国内学术界的研究热点。 本文正是采用经济计量模型的方法对外商直接投资加以研究的。在现有的经济计量模型中多是采用多元线性模型。由于在进行模型回归的过程中采用了较多的自变量,加之宏观变量本身的同趋势性,变量之间的多重共线性是在所难免的。多重共线性是一个非常麻烦的问题,它可能使原来变量之间显著的计量关系而变得不显著,从而给我们的结论分析造成混乱。而本文在解决多重共线性的问题上采用了偏最小二乘法的主成分回归,该方法不仅解决了多重共线性的问题,还可大大简化模型,使模型变量之间的关系更清晰。与此同时,本文为了说明主成分回归在研究外商直接投资以分析区位投资环境的问题上是有效率的而进行普通最小二乘回归。 在两种方法的比较下,本文从模型的拟合效果选择适合的方法从而对区位投资环境加以分析,以找到影响外商直接投资环境的因素并依此提出相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Foreign direct investment is the important reason to bring about an advance in economy of our country. With the deepening of reform and opening-up of our country, our country absorbs the direct foreign investments to increase year by year, and is playing an important role among each trade and area of national economy. Just because the foreign investment’s important function in national economy, In recent years, there is more and more articles about foreign direct investment in domestic, generally speak, the research of the foreign trade direct investment’s regional environment is along three routes mainly: First, in the industrial and commercial management respect, mainly use questionnaire investigation or case study, to study the investigate motive, decision-making process and position factor of the foreign direct investments; Second, econometrics method, mainly utilize the systematic data and statistics model, announce the relation between foreign direct investments and various kinds of regional characteristic variables; Third, company’s geography method , it is mainly space behavior , interdepartmental space connection , interaction and institutional framework of investigating trans-corporation’s overseas investment. And the development fast development of the computer technology added with the official announcements of statistics and statistics, econometric model apply to the research of position factor of foreign direct investment becomes the focus of studying of domestic academia day by day.This text studies the foreign direct investment by the method of econometric model. Mostly adopt the plural linear model in the existing econometric models. Because more independent variables has adopted during the process of carrying on models, in addition the macroscopical variables has the same trend. The multiple synteny between the variables is unavoidable. Multiple synteny is a troublesome question, it might make remarkable relationship between variables unremarkable. Thus confuse the conclusion. <WP=6>And this text has adopted partial least-square regression method to the main composition to solve multiple synteny. This method has not only solved the problem of the multiple synteny, but also can simplify models greatly. make the relation between the variables of the model clearer. Meanwhile, in order to prove that it is the efficient way of main composition regression to solve the foreign direct investment, this text uses least-square regression method.Under the comparison of two kinds of methods, this text chooses the suitable method from the result of fitting of the model thus analyse about the position factor of investment environment. In order to find the factor which influences the foreign direct investment environment and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations according to this.更多还原