【作者】 张少军；

【导师】 董朝霞；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 随着社会生产的发展和科学技术水平的提高,我国的电力工业对水力电力系统的运行和发展提出了更高的要求。作为提高梯级水电站经济运行效益的重要一环,梯级水库的防洪优化调度越来越显示出它的重要性。本文概括了国内外防洪优化调度的进展与研究发展方向,并具体结合“数字清江”开发项目,较深入地探讨了梯级水库的防洪优化调度的相关理论和方法。本文在原有各种防洪调度方法的基础上,将模糊优选动态规划理论应用到梯级水库调度系统的防洪调度中去,解决了现有方法和手段难以解决的防洪目标多维性和防洪决策多维性的问题和其他一些复杂的问题。在系统的实现方面,本文针对动态规划模型在求解多目标多维决策的大规模问题中产生的计算规模过大的问题采用了贪心算法和前后夹逼的思想,大大降低了循环迭代的次数,有效解决了计算量过大的问题。在丰富和完善洪水调度方法的基础上,本文深入讨论了建立一个调洪决策系统的开发策略和开发框架,并针对实际开发的决策系统实例给出了具体的分析。本文的主要创新体现在以下几方面:采用模糊数学理论分析了清江流域全年的汛期隶属度函数,给出了清江隔河岩水库的与汛期隶属度函数对应的模糊汛限水位。采用模糊优选动态规划模型给出了求解最优调洪决策的方法和途径。一个调洪决策是指与各个时段对应的时间序列上的一系列调洪方案,即每一个时段对应一个调洪方案。分析了常规调度模型和模糊优化调度模型各自的特点,研究用多模型体系进行洪水调度,并开发相应的功能。针对水库洪水调度的实际状况和调度过程,研究并开发了水库洪水调度仿真模型软件,建立了一个调洪决策支持系统。更多还原

【Abstract】 Fuzzy optimization and dynamic programming (FODP) is a method to use fuzzy theory in the process of searching best results, which is based on dynamic programming (DP). Some problems of applying the FODP model in flood operation are discussed in this paper. Also, a method of getting membership degree about a new kind of evaluation parameter, as well as the resolving method about the implementation problems is put forward. The experimental verifications with several historical Qingjiang flood data all have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed methods. Comparing with normal flood operation methods, the FODP method can get better results and more flexible operation-styles, which are successfully applied in the Digital Qingjiang Valley. The main innovations of the research in this paper are as follows.Membership degree functions and fuzzy limited levels of the reservoirs in flood season are given, which based on fuzzy mathematics and fuzzy theory.Creative methods and steps based on FODP model are proposed to calculate flood operation schemes.Characteristics of normal operation method and FODP operation method are discussed in detail to apply in the flood operation system in which multi operation models exist.Dispatching flood decision-making support system is developed to simulate the flood operation schemes, which works well in the actual project.更多还原