【作者】 朱杰进；

【导师】 李广一；

【作者基本信息】 湘潭大学 ， 国际关系， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 朝核危机是当前国际关系与中国外交中的一个焦点问题。朝鲜是中国最重要的邻邦之一，作为一个崛起中的负责任大国，中国高度关注并积极介入朝核危机。朝核问题关涉到中国的大国外交与周边外交，是中国实现和平崛起过程中必须处理好的一个关键问题。 朝核危机由来已久。其再度爆发不是偶然的，而是有着一定的客观必然性。首先，美国，尤其是布什政府的对朝强硬遏制政策是导致危机爆发的根源：其次，朝鲜的核边缘政策是危机爆发的直接导火线；最后，美朝之间类似于博弈论中谈及的“胆小鬼游戏”式的互动，对朝核危机的爆发起了一定的推波助澜的作用。 以理性选择理论为工具，以国家利益为判断标准，这是一种比较简约地分析国家对外政策行为的模式。朝核危机的主要当事方是朝鲜和美国，但它实际上牵涉到相关六方的利益，所以朝核危机实际上包含六方的互动和利益博弈，搞清楚相关任何一方的利益与互动策略，都是我们分析朝核问题的必须。从美国的角度看，朝核危机实际上是美国谋求霸权与朝鲜维护主权之间的一场博弈，这是朝核危机的实质。从日本的角度看，主要是利用朝核危机，为自己实现世界政治军事大国的目标添一臂之力。从韩国的角度看，朝核危机使韩国外交陷入到“南北同一民族”和“美韩同盟”之间进行痛苦抉择的困境。从俄罗斯的角度看，积极介入到朝核危机中，是在当前非均衡态势下的有利抉择。从中国的角度看，朝核危机关涉到切身的政治、经济、安全等重大战略利益，中国应发挥自身的独特优势，在朝核问题上起到积极有力的建设性作用。 解决朝核危机的主要障碍是“三个失衡”，即：冷战结构的失衡、外交架构的失衡和《停战协定》的失衡。要克服这三个障碍，最终化解朝核危机，就必须通过六方会谈的方式结束朝鲜半岛的冷战状态，要求相关各方彻底摒弃冷战思维，树立合作安全的新观念，建立东北亚多边安全机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 DPRK’s Nuclear Crisis is one of the most important things in contemporary international relations and china’s diplomacy. DPRK is one of the most important neighbors to china. Being a.responsible rising country, china has been active to make contributions to solve the crisis. It refers to china’s great power diplomacy and neighbor countries diplomacy and affects the process of china’s peaceful rising.The crisis has a long history. It is not accidental for it to happen once more. There are at least three reasons. First of all, America’s diplomacy, especially Bush administration’s offensive containment policy should be responsible for the crisis mostly.Secondly, DPRK’s nuclear borderline policy also attributes to the outbreak of it.Lastly, the interactions between America and DPPK accelerate the process of the urgent confrontation.It is a simple and useful way to analyze one country’s diplomacy with rational choice theory and national interest. The major sides of the nuclear crisis are U.S.A and DPPK, but it actually refers to the interests of other four countries. So it is necessary to know the strategy of each side relating to the crisis. In U.S.A, the essence of the crisis is the conflict between America’s hegemony and DPRK’s sovereignty. In Japan, the crisis offers a good chance to develop military arments and increase political influence. In ROK, the crisis is one of the most difficult problems to deal with, which needs the balance between "Alliance of U.S.A-ROK" and "Unity of DPPK-ROK". In Russia, it is a good choice to attend the crisis to get rid of the imbalance of national and international situation.Finally in china, the crisis has much to do with the national interests of politics economics and security. So we should try our bestto make contributions to solve the crisis with our particular advantages. There are three obstacles at least in solving the crisis. One is the imbalance of international politics structure in Northeast Asia, another is the imbalance of diplomatic relations structure in the Korean peninsula. The third is the imbalance of the 1953 Armistice Regime. In order to conquer these difficulties, we should continue to hold the six-side Beijing conference, abandon the cold war thoughts completely, foster cooperative security ideas, and establish the multilateral security mechanism in Northeast Asia.更多还原