【作者】 卜亚；

【导师】 乔桂明；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 金融学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 在开放经济背景下，货币替代会对一国经济金融形势产生严重影响，如货币政策的独立性和有效性受到影响、政府的财政税基遭到削弱、汇率波动频繁、国际收支失衡、减缓甚至阻碍该国货币的自由兑换进程等。由于大规模的货币替代只能发生在资本账户开放的背景下，而中国目前还没有开放资本账户，所以中国的货币替代问题必然只限于一定程度。 本文首先对我国货币替代的程度进行认定，得出我国目前货币替代程度并不严重的结论，并对我国货币替代的影响因素进行了详细分析。 货币替代是开放经济下的一种货币性扰动，研究货币替代就不能不研究一国的资本账户问题。所以本文对资本账户开放的利益和风险进行了分析。 接下来，本文着重分析了在我国资本账户开放过程当中，如何防范货币替代风险的问题。先提出圭多蒂的反货币替代的“免行动区间”理论，然后根据这一理论来分析我国在资本账户开放过程当中，反货币替代的政策建议。 最后是结论部份，对以上分析做出总结。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the open economy, Currency Substitution has great effect on one country’s economy and finance situation. For example, the effectiveness and independence of government’s monetary policy will be affected negatively, the basis of the government’s tax collection will be weakened, the exchange rate of domestic currency will fluctuate frequently, the balance of payment of the country will result in deficit, and what is more, the process to make the domestic currency a convertible currency will be slowed down.It is clear that Currency Substitution will only occur when there are no restrictions imposed on the inflow and outflow of capital. Since China has many restrictions on it, Chinese Currency Substitution must be miner.Firstly, the paper observes our country’s Currency Substitution phenomenon, draws the conclusion that our country’s Currency Substitution is not serious, and analyzes Currency Substitution’s influence factors.Typical of Currency Substitution is the monetary fluctuation of an open economy, so Capital Account must be studied when we analyze Currency Substitution, therefore its risk and profit are studied.In following sections, the paper emphasizes how to prevent the risk of Currency Substitution when Capital Account is open. The author quotes Guidotti’s Inaction Band policy, according to this theory, the author puts forward some policy suggestions when capital account is gradually open.The final Chapter is conclusion.更多还原