商船驾驶台决策理论及应用研究

【作者】 刘清水；

【导师】 张秋荣； 蔡存强； 葛依东；

【作者基本信息】 上海海事大学 ， 交通信息工程及控制， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 针对海事安全和管理，由于人为因素和管理不善原因引起的海难事故占有很大的比例，本论文“商船驾驶台决策理论及应用研究”正是建立在以提高航海安全和提高航海人员决策能力为目的而展开研究的。 首先是进行了大量的海难事故案例分析和统计，得出70％以上的海难事故是由于“驾驶台人员决策失误”所造成的。然后，深入到船舶管理公司进行船舶管理方面的调研，针对船舶公司管理和船上管理以及SMS体系文件等方面的问题进行学习和研究，得出了“船舶规范化管理和驾驶台决策存在着某种关系”和“SMS体系文件对驾驶台决策有着某种影响”等研究问题。接着，本人多次参加船员挑选和培训项目，通过和广大船员的交流和国外船东的探讨，发现“船舶驾驶员的应急决策能力普遍较低”。最后，通过分析、整理上述大量调研资料，并学习“统计调查理论”，初步制定调查问卷，经过论证，最终确定以开放式和封闭式相结合的问卷，调查驾驶台决策人员对决策理论的认识和理解、决策人员的决策行为和思维以及SMS体系文件对驾驶台决策人员决策的影响。 通过上述调查和研究，运用决策理论，分析、总结船舶运营特点、驾驶台及其环境特点，并对驾驶台决策人员的决策行为进行了调查研究，初步建立“商船驾驶台决策理论(BDM)”；并针对广大驾驶人员存在决策思维具有模糊性的问题，通过借鉴大脑思维方式研究成果和决策行为有关知识，找到一个有助于决策人员和管理人员在日常和应急情况下做出决策的工具，即思维模型导图(MMM)。应用“驾驶台决策理论”和“思维模型导图”可以有效地提高驾驶台决策人员的决策能力，进而提高船舶航行的安全。本论文还着重介绍了“思维模型导图”在驾驶台非险情决策和险情决策中的应用，以期起到抛砖引玉的作用。 本论文，共分八章和四个附录。第一章是引言部分；第二章说明驾驶台决策的重要性和意义；第三章是驾驶台决策理论；第四章是驾驶台决策人员决策能力的调查；第五章介绍驾驶台非险情决策；第六章是驾驶台险情决策；第七章介绍驾驶台决策理论与船舶规范化管理的关系；第八章是本论文的结束语。附录一介绍脑细胞的放射性思维方式；附录二介绍思维模型导图制作方法；附录三调查问卷；附录四图表索引。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the respect of marine safety and management, marine" accident and casualty caused by human error or improper management gains a high percentage, therefore, the presented thesis named "Merchant Vessels’ Bridge Decision-making Theory and its Application", aiming to promote the marine safety and enhance the seamen’s ability of making decisions, starts its research.Firstly, analysis and statistics based on numerous marine accidents and casualties from the author indicates that "improper or wrong decision made by deck-officers’’ results in 70% or more marine casualties. Secondly, the author went to ship management companies to conduct investigations on ship management, and to make studies and researches on shipping company management, shipboard management as well as SMS manuals, etc. Therefore, the author got some topics such as "there exists some relationships between the standardization of ship management and bridge decisions-making" and "SMS Manuals have certain influences on bridge decision-making". Thirdly, the author took part in Seamen Selection & Training Programs. Through discussions with foreign ship-owners and communications with a large number of seamen, the author found that the emergency responding abilities of most officers were rather poor. Finally, through analysis and organization of the above-mentioned material as well as the study of "theory of statistics and investigation", the author designed a questionnaire which was firstly tested thrice and at last decided to do the questionnaire in open and close form to see the understanding of the decision-making theory by the bridge decision-makers, the decision-making behavior and minds of the decision-makers, and the influence from the SMS Manuals to the bridge decision-makers.With the help of the above investigation and research, the analysis and summarization of the characteristics of the shipping operation, ship bridge and its environmental features, as well as the investigation of the decision-making behavior of bridge decision-makers, the author applies Decision Theory initially established a "Bridge Decision Theory (BDM) ". What’s more, the author found a tool, the Mind Model Map (MMM), which is useful to help decision-makers andmanagers to make decisions under common situations and emergencies through the reference of the study outcome of the thinking way of brain and the knowledge relating* to the decision-making behavior. With BDM and MMM, we may improve the decision-makers’ decision-making abilities effectively to promote the ship’s safety at sea. The thesis also emphasizes on the implement of the MMM on decision-making in non-emergencies and emergencies situation. The author hopes that the remarks will solicit other people’s wiser and mature opinions.This thesis consists of 8 chapters and 4 appendixes. Chapter One is an introduction; in Chapter Two, the author states the importance of Bridge Decision-making. Chapter Three discusses Bridge Decision-making Theory. Chapter Four is the investments of bridge decision-maker’s abilities; in Chapter Five, the author recommends the decision-making in non-emergencies and its MMM; Chapter Six is the introduction of decision-making model under emergencies; in Chapter Seven, the author shows the relationship between bridge decision theory and shipboard standard management; Chapter Eight is the conclusion and prospect. Appendix One is the introduction of the emanative thinking pattern of the brain cells; Appendix Two illuminate the means to draw the map of the mental modal; Appendix Three is the questionnaire and Appendix four is the index of the diagrams and tables.更多还原