【作者】 陈涛；

【导师】 常庆瑞；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 土壤学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 长期以来，陕北农牧交错带粮食不能自给，人地关系紧张，粮食供需之间的矛盾成为困扰区域经济发展的重大问题。在此情况下，研究该区土地资源的数量、质量状况、生产能力，人口增长及其粮食需求，对掌握区域粮食供需情况，解决粮食生产与需求之间的矛盾，实现区域粮食的总体供需平衡有重要的意义。本论文在野外调查和资料收集的基础上，利用地理信息系统，对陕北农牧交错带土地资源质量进行综合评价，以及对该区的粮食安全进行系统的研究，得到以下主要结论：　　　　１．以ＡｒｃＧＩＳ为基础平台，数字化完成土地资源系列图，构筑土地资源质量综合评价空间数据库；通过空间叠加，得到基础单元图斑，采用属性表操作获取基础单元图斑的专题属性信息，结合社会经济属性信息，建立属性数据库；以空间数据库为基础，采用叠加分析方法，得到了研究区土地资源综合质量评价图。　　　　２．采用层次分析法对陕北农牧交错带土地资源进行综合质量评价，评价结果显示该区的土地质量总体不高。一、二级地极少，２．３８万公顷，只占研究区总面积的０．６６％；三级地４１．４３万公顷，占１１．４７％；四级地１０９．９７万公顷，占３０．４５％；五级地９２．５４万公顷，占２５．６５％；六级地８１．０５万公顷，占２２．４４％：七级地３３．７２万公顷，占９．３４％。　　　　３．揭示陕北农牧交错带粮食供需之间的矛盾。①粮食需求预测。本研究根据有关文献，采用数理统计方法，制定该区未来营养发展目标，得到该区在２００５、２０１５和２０３０年的粮食需求，分别是６８６６４万ｋｇ、１０２８０８万ｋｇ和１４７１００万ｋｇ。②粮食总产量预测。本论文粮食总产量包括植物性粮食产量和动物性畜产品，而且将畜产品按照营养折算标、准，折算成植物性粮食。植物性粮食产量是根据耕地生产力预测、耕地面积和复种指数进行计算，畜产品产量是根据饲草量预测进行计算，总粮食产量则是两者之和。２００５、２０１５和２０３０年的粮食总产量分别是：５５９３４万ｋｇ、７０４４２万ｋｇ和８２８２６万ｋｇ。③粮食供需之间矛盾。根据粮食需求预测与粮食总产量预测，可以得出该区在２００５、２０１５和２０３０年的粮食余缺，分别是：一１２７３０万ｋｇ、一３２３６６万ｋｇ和一６４２７４万ｋｇ。　　　　４．增加粮食产量，解决粮食安全问题的主要对策是：保护耕地，严禁非农用地占用；开发后备资源，增加粮食生产；改造中低产田，提高耕地质量；调节农牧生产结构，大力发展畜牧业。更多还原

【Abstract】 For a long time, the food supply of the Agriculture and Pasturage InterlacedZone of Northern Shaanxi is not enough. The interrelation between the people andland is very intensity. And the inconsistency of the food sustentation has been animportant obstacle on the development of region economics. In the situation there isan important significance through the studying of the quality and amounts of land inthe region and the capacity of food supplying to master the status of the food supplyand demand. In addition, the studying of the quantity and quality of land and finding away to resolving the inconsistency between supply and demand of food is also veryimportant in order to keep the balance of food supply and demand. My article drawsome conclusions based on the evaluation of land in the Agriculture and PasturageInterlaced Zone of Northern Shannxi and on the systemic studying of food security ofthis area. 1. Based on the software — ArcGIS, build the spatial basic database andthrough the spatial union of special graphic map we get the map plot as basic unit ofthe land quality evaluation. At the same time we can gain the attribute information ofthe basic unit by the means of attribute table manipulation. After this, combined withthe social economy attribute information, built the attribute database. Based on thespatial database, we can make use of the method of union to output the result of landevaluation. 2. Gain the result of land evaluation by use of APH method. And the resultshows that the land quality of the area is not high as a whole. The first and secondgrade land is very few, only 2.38 hm2,0.66 percent of total; The third grade land has41.43hm2, 11.47 percent; The forth grade land has 109.97 hm2, 30.45 percent; Thefifth grade land has 92.54hm2, 25.65 percent; The sixth grade land has 81.05hm2,22.44 percent; The seventh grade land has 33.72hm2, 9.34 percent. 3. Reveal the inconsistency of food supply and demand in the area, ?forecastthe food demand. Based on correlation information, use the method of mathematicsStat. and set down the future goal of nourishment development. We can get thedemand in 2005, 2015 and 2030 year. They are 686640 thousand kg, 1028080 thousandkg and 147100 thousand kg. (2) forecast the food supply. The food includes the vegetation food andlivestockproduct.Wemustconvertthe livestockproductintothevegetationaccordingtothestandardof<WP=7>nourishment. Finally we can forest the result of food supply in 2005, 2015 and 2030year. They are 559340 thousand kg, 704420 thousand kg and 828260 thousand kg.?the inconsistency of the food supply and demand. Based the forest of supplydemand and supply, we can see that there are deficiencies between the demand andsupply in the future. They are -127300 thousand kg, -323660 thousand kg and-642740 thousand kg in 2005, 2015 and 2030 year. 4. Increase the output of food to resolve the food security problem. The measuresare these: To protect the amount of plantation, prohibit impropriating plantation. Toexploit the other resources, increase the amount of plantation. To improve the qualityof plantation, increase the output of land. To adjust the structure of farming andpasturage, develop the pasturage adequately.更多还原