【作者】 陈进；

【导师】 邹恒甫；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 金融学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 3G指将无线通信与国际互联网等多媒体通信结合的新一代宽带移动通信系统。在中国3G牌照的发放政策上政府迟迟没有表态，而学术界对此也是众说纷纭。本文在总结国外3G牌照发放的成功经验和失败教训的基础上，结合中国的具体情况，运用拍卖理论和博弈论来分析中国3G牌照究竟应该何去何从。本文主要内容分为三个部分：第一部分对比拍卖和行政审批这两种不同的发放方式，从分配的有效性，分配过程的公平、透明性等角度出发，通盘考虑消费者、运营商和政府的利益，通过对比得出：中国的3G牌照发放应该采取拍卖的形式；因为拍卖不仅可以有效地分配3G牌照即将牌照分配给最能有效利用这些牌照的电信运营商，而且还可以为政府带来大量的收入，同时政府也可以利用拍卖来达到如增加移动通讯市场竞争，鼓励技术创新等目的，而行政审批不仅缓慢、缺乏效率，而且受人为的影响比较大，容易产生腐败等行为；在这部分本文也反驳了各种反对拍卖的似是而非的理由。文章第二部分认真分析了三种目前讨论最多的拍卖方式：分成拍卖、密封式拍卖和英式拍卖。在总结国外3G牌照拍卖的得与失的基础上，通过建立数学模型分析得出：中国3G牌照的拍卖应该采取密封式拍卖的方式；因为分成拍卖不仅在实践上很难操作，而且在理论上具有先天不足，同时分成拍卖很容易导致牌照分配无效；密封式拍卖不仅可以为政府带来巨额的收益，而且还可以鼓励更多企业参与竞争，提高中国电信市场的竞争力；英式拍卖由于受中国移动通讯市场实际情况的限制，很容易导致串谋而且不利于新的企业进入；在牌照费用的支付上，为了防止复议的发生，牌照费用应该一次性全部支付。文章第三部分讨论了中国合理的3G牌照发放数；文章首先分析了国外政府在3G牌照发放数上的经验和教训，从技术和中国移动市场等角度出发，通过建立数学模型分析得出：为了保证拍卖的进行和提高移动市场的竞争，发放的牌照数目必须比现有的移动运营商要多；参考国外的牌照发放数、中国的实际情况以及技术上的各种可行性，得到中国3G牌照最好发放5到6张。更多还原

【Abstract】 The third-generation mobile-phone is combined with multimedia. After Finland issued the first 3G licenses, twelve Europe countries distributed then* 3G licenses in succession. But the Chinese government doesn’t express attitude about how to distribute 3G licenses up to now. How to distribute Chinese 3G licenses is a great dispute in Chinese academe. Government should be cautious about the licenses’ distribution, for the licenses value thousands of million Yuan. After analyzing the success and failure of foreign country in the distribution of 3G licenses, using auction theory and game theory, I try to explain how and how many licenses to distribute. There are three chapters hi this paper. The two different methods of auction and Administrative processes are compared hi chapter one. Having concerned about the benefits of consumer, telecom firms and government, our conclusion is that the government should use auction to issue the licenses. Because auction is an effective and also the fairest method of allocating a public resource, auctions are quicker and more economical than administrative allocation. An auction cannot only raise revenue for the government, but also generate an efficient allocation: that is, assign the licenses to the firms able to make the best use of them. Auctions are not just about raising revenue; they can be used as a public-policy tool also. Auctioning requires merely that the rules be set hi advance so that the firms understand at the time of bidding what the government will require of them should they win. I also corrected some false opinion about auctions. Li chapter two, I compared the three common methods of the first price sealed auction, ascending auction and royalty auction. Based on my model, my conclusion is that the government should use the first-price sealed auction to issue licenses. A first major set of concerns for practical auction design involve the risk that participants may explicitly or tacitly collude to avoid bidding up prices. The second major area of concern of practical auction design is to attract bidders, since an auction with too few bidders risks being unprofitable for the auctioneer and potentially inefficient. The advantage of a sealed-bid design is that it is less susceptible to collusion, sealed auction may yield higher revenues when there are ex ante differences among the bidders and sealed auction also can encourage newentrants participate, for this may increase consumer welfare and increase auctionrevenue. Furthermore, I discussed that the fee of licenses should be paid one time soon after the auction finished. In part three, I discuss how many licenses should be issued. Our conclusion is that the government should issue five to six licenses to the telecom firms. Based on my model and referring to the success and failure of the foreign practical application of 3rd generation license and hi combining with the China mobile market, through technical study I find that, to insure the successful implement of auction, the number of licenses must exceed that of the current operation agents; hi comparison with the number of licenses issued hi foreign countries and hi reference to domestic technical possibilities and application environment, the optimal number of licenses should be issued is around 5 or 6.更多还原