【作者】 金永福；

【导师】 熊德琪；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 环境科学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 海上溢油污染是最常见的海洋污染物之一，而实时准确地监视监测溢油位置和漂移轨迹是采取有效溢油应急行动的关键。因此，世界各地的海事国家目前都积极参与海上溢油的监视和遥感监测。最近几年关于溢油监测的研究都集中在卫星遥感，在灾难性的大量油类泄漏的情况下，卫星遥感和航空遥感都被用来跟踪监视溢油的漂移和扩散。但当环境条件变坏时，这项监测任务就变得非常困难。本文就是针对这个问题致力于开发一种全天候的应急工具和相关预测手段。 首先，本文研究开发一种漂浮移动性能与“油粒子”相似的、采用GSM技术接受并发送数据短信功能而且还具有GPS信号接收的GPS浮标，在溢油事故发生后立即将其投放在海面溢油层中随油膜一起漂移。监测中心通过GSM移动通信网实时接收GPS浮标发出的定位信息，并由GIS界面平台实现对溢油位置实施实时定位追踪显示，达到实时跟踪和信息显示查询的功能。并提取解码后的GPS信号数据中的速度、方向及时间数据。 其次，在分析流线和迹线之间的区别与联系和浮标的拉格朗日漂移，并介绍数据同化一般方法以后，重点基于由GPS信号数据提取的速度、方向等数据提出了利用插入观测法等数据同化技术利用这些观测数据校正溢油数值模型中的初始数据来预测溢油未来走向的方法。这种方法相比传统孤立的潮流预报和风场结合模型更符合实际效果。 最后，基于本文系统模型，对计算结果进行了适当分析，通过模拟的海上溢油事故表明，本文的实时定位和同化预测方法能实时准确的跟踪溢油位置和预测未来溢油走向，这将有助于海事局等溢油应急部门和单位进行实时监控、监视和预测溢油走向，为溢油应急指挥提供一种准确实时、成本低廉、全天候的溢油全程监测手段。更多还原

【Abstract】 Oil spill is the most common pollution in sea. Surveillance model of the place and trace of the spilled-oil is the key technique of Oil-Spill Emergency Response system. Most maritime countries actively take part in the emergency accident mainly about ship, pipe and oil derrick which occur usually and chronically. They use ocean airborne remote sensing as the measure tech in the recent years. But the surveillance will be difficult when it applies in the bad weather. This paper does research on seeking an emergency response tool for all-weather research and a correlative predicting method.Firstly, A buoy equipped with GPS/GSM module which floats synchronously with the oil spill is introduced into this research. It can send the location of itself by GSM at intervals, with which the center PC receive the GPS location data, and the cartography of the digital chart use them for spilled-oil tracing and surveillance, etc.Secondly, after analyzing the difference and relationship of the streamline and trajectory on fluid mechanics, the buoy’s excursion of Lagrange, and introducing the common assimilation method into this study, The author emphasis on employing the Interpolation Methods with the observed GPS Data to optimize the numerical simulation model in predicting the oil trace, which predicted to be more accurate than ordinary numerical model.At last, on the basis of the "GIS/GPS/GSM" system, the author systematically analyze the result of the "3G’"s calculation. Through an example of simulative oil-spill event, the "3G" trace the spilled-oil timely and correctly. Besides, it predicts the future place of spilled-oil more exactly than the conventional prediction method, so it provides more accurate result. The programming methods of performing the function of the system are given. The tech this paper argue provides an all-day method for spilled-oil contingency department more accurately and less costly.更多还原