资本帐户开放的经济增长效应分析及对我国的启示

【作者】 孙芳；

【导师】 蓝发钦；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 世界经济， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 资本账户开放曾经被誉为是发展中国家经济发展中的必经之路。但是至今为止，这种开放的实际影响仍是国际金融领域模糊不清、颇具争议的焦点问题。从20世纪90年代开始，发展中国家纷纷实施了放松管制的政策，大力推进经济自由化的进程。与此相关的巨额资金也源源不断地从发达国家流向发展中国家，似乎构成了发展中国家经济增长和经济赶超的一大动力源泉。但是，突如其来的金融危机让发展中国家认识到：开放资本账户不仅能提供可观的收益，也蕴藏着巨大的风险。从1995年的墨西哥，到1997年、1998年的东南亚，再到1998年、2000年的俄罗斯和拉美国家，一系列的金融动荡使得这些国家的经济体系遭受了重创，经济发展水平也相应倒退了若干年。 如今，我国已经迈出了开放资本账户的步伐。从最初的吸引外国直接投资到后来的设立B股市场、实施QFII制度，资本账户的开放程度日益加深。然而，对于资本账户开放这一经济自由化进程中风险最大的“惊险一跳”，任何开放措施都应当本着驱利除弊、促进经济增长的目标而开展。为此，从宏观的角度分析消除资本管制对经济增长可能产生的影响就显得极其必要。 本文选取“经济增长效应”这一视角展开论述，着重分析资本账户开放对发展中国家经济增长的影响。文章从定量和定性的角度分别判断我国资本账户开放的现状，通过研究资本账户开放的经济增长效应，并结合实际情况提出了我国资本账户的开放策略。全文由六个部分组成： 第一章：从定性的角度把握资本账户开放的内涵。同时，结合实际情况，介绍我国资本账户开放的进程和目前的资本管制内容。 第二章：从定量的角度对资本账户开放进行界定。在此，文章归纳了海外对资本账户测度的若干方法，在应用资本规模测度法对我国进行测评后，笔者提出了一种更具可行性的准约束式的方法测度我国资本账户的开放状态，得出分析结论：我国资本账户开放处于中等水平。 第三章：从理论分析入手，研究资本账户开放对一国经济增长的影响。其中具有促进作用的有：产出效应、到期转换效应、投资组合效应、金融深化效应和经济增长效应。但是，消除资本管制以促进经济增长需要一定的前提条件。盲目的开放反而会给一国经济的稳定性造成冲击，带来诸多风险。 摘要 第四章:从实证分析入手，运用计量模型探讨资本账户开放对一国经济增长的影响。由于统计过程中存在的各种方法的差异，现有实证分析的结果各不相同，同时存在促进、无关和不确定三种结论。即便是借助于对投资和金融深化这些中介指标的分析，影响的不确定性也未见改观。 第五章:从案例分析入手，考察发展中国家中颇具代表性的智利、韩国和波兰三国资本账户的开放对国内经济的影响。其中，智利的开放被国际金融界公认为是成功的典范。研究发现，渐进式的开放模式更具有实践上的可行性，同时开放次序的安排以及汇率制度的配套改革也是开放成功必不可少的因素。 第六章:在理论研究、实证分析和国别比较的基础上，本章着重关注我国开放资本账户中的实施策略。这涉及到两个方面的问题:一是开放的速度;二是开放的次序。我国资本账户开放要遵循渐进的开放模式:“积极的渐进式开放”。在排序问题上，笔者认为要同时兼顾资本账户开放和贸易自由化的外部次序和资本账户内部的次序安排，并提出了大致的开放框架。 文章的创新之处主要体现在:在第二章中，笔者对资本账户各种测度方法进行评述，考虑各方面的因素，提出了一种具有可行性和有效性的测度方法;在第四章中，作者从计量经济学回归分析的角度，察看资本账户开放对经济增长、投资和金融深化的影响;在第五章的最后部分，笔者根据三大原则，对资本账户的内部排序进行了粗略地判断。 至今为止，资本账户开放对一国经济的影响依旧是一个悬而未决的问题。本文的分析只能涉及其中些许皮毛，仅仅是抛砖引玉，还有诸多内容需要进一步深化和挖掘。更多还原

【Abstract】 Capital account liberalization was once seen as an inevitable step along the path to economic development for developing countries. But it remains one of the most controversial and least understood policies of our day. Views on this issue have flourished since the early 1990s, when international financial deregulation and the associated capital flows from industrial to developing countries, appeared to be fueling faster growth and catch-up. While a sudden series of financial crises have made it clear that international capital flows have risks as well as benefits. These crises started with industrial countries in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992 and 1993, then moving on in a significantly more virulent form to developing countries with the Mexico crisis in 1995, the Asian crisis in 1997-1998, and the Russian and Latin American crisis in 1998-2000. All these economies suffered heavy damage in the crises.Now, China is in the process of opening its capital account. From the activity of attracting foreign investment to the establishment of B-share and QFII, the degree of opening is going further. Under the circumstances, it is urgently necessary for us to review the effects of capital account liberalization from theoretic view and empirical view.This paper focuses on the effects of capital account liberalization on economic growth and then put forward the strategy of China for opening. This paper includes six parts:The first part: The definition of capital account liberalization from qualitative view. At the same time, this part gives an outline of the opening process in China and introduces the status of capital control in China.The second part: The definition of capital account liberalization from quantitative view. On the basis of summarizing several measures, the author puts forward a feasible means to measure the degree of deregulation in China, and then finds out that China’s capital account is in the middle level of opening.The third part: The analysis of the effects of capital account liberalization on growth by using the existing economic theory. There are some positive benefits, such as the effect of output, the effect of maturity transformation, the effect of portfolio investment,the effect of financial deepening, the effect of welfare increase. But capital account liberalization may bring fluctuation to economy, especially for developing countries.The fourth part: The analysis of the effects of capital account liberalization on growth by using regressive models in econometrics. Owing to the diversity of statistical methods, there are different results on this issue. Some found no relation, some found significantly positive relative, other found uncertain relation between deregulation and growth. And the result makes no change even if we take the variables of investment and financial deepening into consideration.The fifth part: The analysis of the effects of capital account liberalization on growth by using representative cases: Chile, Korea and Poland. Among these, Chile is regarded as the most successful example. After research, we realize that the developing countries can endure the cost of liberalization if they reform step by step. Meanwhile, the sequencing and the correspondent reform on the exchange rate system are important factors for successful deregulation.The sixth part: Research on the implement strategy during the process of capital account liberalization in China. This involves two aspects: one is the speed of liberation; the other is the sequencing of liberalization. The gradual and slow-speed deregulation is suitable to China. On the question of sequencing, the author advances that we need to consider both external order and internal order, and brings forward a framework in brief.There are three innovations in the paper. The first is that I remark on different measures and design a suitable means to measure the degree of liberalization in China. The second is that examine the effect of capital account liberalization on growth, investment and financial de更多还原