【作者】 刘钦国；

【导师】 刘荣茂；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 金融学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 迅速增长的居民储蓄对经济发展有互相矛盾的两种作用：它既能给经济发展提供必需的巨额资金，也可以抑制居民的消费需求，从而通过降低总的有效需求，阻碍经济发展。目前我们经济存在的最大问题是内需不足，在这一现实情况下，如何妥善处理这一矛盾、合理引导储蓄分流，进而扩大内需、发展经济，是摆在我们面前的亟待解决的课题。 本研究以江苏省城镇居民储蓄为研究范围，通过对储蓄现状和结构的描述，分析现阶段江苏城镇居民储蓄的特点。然后运用实证方法，研究决定居民储蓄行为的因素以及各因素作用的大小程度，并结合居民消费和投资意愿，预测居民储蓄在未来几年内的走势；通过对经典模型的修正，研究了江苏省居民储蓄与经济增长的关系。最后结合现实情况，提出储蓄分流、促进经济增长的政策建议。 具体来说，本研究正文部分分为以下六章： 第一章是西方储蓄理论综述。详细介绍西方经济学中储蓄过度理论、个人储蓄行为理论以及储蓄与经济增长理论。 第二章通过使用调查资料，对江苏省城镇居民家庭储蓄总量和结构进行描述和分析。并通过对居民家庭投资和消费意向的分析，指出存在的问题。 第三章运用储蓄过度理论，研究江苏省城镇居民高储蓄和储蓄高增长问题。并说明这种“双高”现象给经济带来的正反两方面效应。 第四章是江苏城镇居民储蓄行为研究。从变量选择开始，运用计量经济学的方法，构造回归模型并对回归结果做出分析。结尾处还根据居民投资和消费意向等因素对江苏城镇居民储蓄的未来走势做出预测。 第五章重点研究江苏居民储蓄与经济增长的关系，修正了传统模型，并给出一个储蓄作用于经济的可能途径。 第六章作为本研究的结论，综合了上述研究结果并提出政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Quickly increasing savings imposes two kinds of self-contradictory functions on our economy: It can provide a huge sum of funds to economic development, and also can repress the resident’s consumption demand so as to bar economy development by reducing total effective demand. Now, the lack of domestic demand has become the biggest problem of our economy. Under this realistic circumstance, it is an important problem which is needed to solve in the near future to handle this self-contradict perfectly and put the savings into reasonable uses so as to extend our domestic demand and develop our economy.This study is a study on the savings of urban residents in Jiangsu province. It analyzes the characteristics of urban residents’ savings in Jiangsu province by describing its actuality and structure. Then, it finds the factors which affect the residents’ savings behavior and study the importance of each factor by employing the econometrics models. With the surveys on the urban residents’ consume willing and invest willing, this study predicts a trend of the urban residents’ savings in the following several years. With correcting classic model, it also studies the relationship between residents’ savings and economic growth in Jiangsu province. Finally, it gives some policy suggestions to put the savings into reasonable uses so as to promote the growth of our economy.This study’ main body is divided into six chapters:Chapter 1: An overview on western savings theories. It introduces three main theories of western economics in detail. They are over-savings theories, individual savings behavior theories, together with savings and economic growth theories.Chapter 2: It is a description and analysis on gross urban household savings and its structure in Jiangsu province by using research data. Then, it point out the existing problem by analyzing the residents’ willing of consume and invest.Chapter 3: With the use of over-savings theories, the residents’ high savings rate and the savings’ high increase rate in Jiangsu province is studied. At the end of this chapter, all possible positive and negative effects brought by "double high" are introduced.Chapter 4: A study on the savings behavior of urban residents in Jiangsu province. It starts with seeking variables. By employing the econometrics methods, a regression model is constituted and some analysis on the result of the model is presented. At the end of this chapter, it appears a prediction on the trend of the urban residents’ savings in the following several years.Chapter 5: A study on the relationship between savings and economic growth. It corrects the classical models and shows a possible way by with the economy makes advantage of savings.Chapter 6: Conclusion. Summarize all the above studies and propose some policy suggestions.更多还原