【作者】 刘志忠；

【导师】 叶依广；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 外国直接投资(FDI)是江苏经济增长百花园里一朵耀眼的奇葩。2003年，江苏实际利用FDI超过158亿美元，接近全国的30％，首年超过广东跃居全国第一。在经济增长理论框架下展开关于江苏FDI的实证研究是本文的主要任务，其意义在于，一方面对江苏外资经济给予理论上的解释，另一方面探讨其可持续性对策，从而为下一步提高利用外资水平的相关决策提供理论支持。 论文围绕“FDI是江苏经济增长的引擎”这一理论假说展开，认为FDI以其“一揽子”资源优势系统性地对江苏经济增长的各种可能机制进行全面渗透，从而由一个外生变量转化为一种内生动力。一是以“增量”资本投入构成江苏工业化的原始积累的重要因素，并对江苏“存量”资产进行改造与融合。二是以其非资本形态的投入，包括技术、管理、观念、体制、知识、竞争等要素的投入，在对江苏技术进步、产业结构升级和制度变迁等方面产生影响深刻的“外溢效应”。三是通过自身的国际化经营行为带动江苏外贸发展，从而拉动江苏经济增长。以此为基本分析框架，本文对FDI地作用机制进行了逐一考察。 随后，我们用计量模型验证了江苏FDI引擎说。并用Granger因果关系检验表明，全省及苏南的FDI与GDP总体上呈现出互为因果的关系。而在苏中、苏北则只存在着由GDP到FDI的单向因果关系，即当地GDP增长可能带来FDI的增长，但FDI还没有成为GDP增长的Granger原因。 本文的结论是，FDI是改革开放后江苏经济增长的引擎。同时强调“机制就是通道”，外国直接投资促进江苏经济增长的作用机制有可能长期化。而其实现条件就是及时消除这些通道中的不可持续性因素，包括对技术的控制与垄断、产业结构偏斜、加工贸易处于价值链低端等三个通道中的障碍物，以及由于FDI区域分布所造成的江苏区域经济增长差异扩大化，共同构成江苏外资经济的四大核心问题。 基于以上分析，论文最后引入我国最新的社科研究成果——“科学发展观”作为下一步江苏利用外资的指导思想，提出一个框架性对策建议。一是要以科学发展观为指导树立科学的外资观，二是要树立科学发展观，调整江苏利用外资战略，三是落实科学发展观，完善江苏利用外资政策。其中包括了解决四大问题的一些建议，如以增强市场的竞争性来诱导跨国公司技术溢出和提高国企、民企的自主技术创新能力；扩大市场的开放性，以在服务业中更多利用外资；延伸产业链条，发展产业聚集，促使加工贸易转型升级；统筹区域利用外资格局，力争培育若干江苏自己的外资密集、内外结合、带动力强的开放型经济增长带。更多还原

【Abstract】 Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a wonderful flower in the garden of Jiangsu economic growth. Its inward FDI in 2003 exceed $15.8 billion, which is close to the 30% of China, and, instead of Guangdong, become the No. 1 province in the list of FDI in China. Do an empirical study on Jiangsu FDI under the theoretical frame of economic growth is the major task of this paper. It will give a theoretically explain and some suggestion on Jiangsu FDI. Author hope it can be useful in the decision of government.At the beginning of this paper, we expounded a theoretical hypothesis "FDI is an engine of Jiangsu economic growth" which is the main clue of whole paper. Because of its "packaged" resource characteristic, FDI can infiltrate systematically into the various possible inside mechanisms of economic growth. Then FDI become an inside incentive of growth from an outside factor. The following is the main mechanisms:(1) as an added capital put into the primitive accumulation of Jiangsu industrialization, and restructure other stock capital of Jiangsu, (2) its other factor including technology, management, idea, system, knowledge and competitive etc. can make deeply spillover effect in technological advance, industrial structural upgrading and system changes, (3) Multinational corporations (MNCs) can help to develop the trade of international trade of Jiangsu. In this analysis framework, we inspect carefully on all those mechanisms one by one.By using an econometric model, we verified our former hypothesis. We also do a Granger no-causality test between FDI and GDP. There is mutual causality between FDI and GDP in Jiangsu and Sunan. The single causalityfrom GDP to FDI exists in Suzhong and Subei, which means local GDP increase probably brings the increase of FDI, but FDI does not the Granger reason of their GDP growth.The conclusion of the paper is "FDI is the engine of Jiangsu economic growth in recent 25 years". Meanwhile we emphasizes FDI can promote Jiangsu’s economic growth in a long run in the condition of four unsustainable factor can be eliminated, because its mechanisms are passageway to growth. The four core problem include MNCs monopoly technology, FDI was distributed unequilibriumly in industrial structural, processing trade is in the low end of the world industry value chain, the regional economic disparities because of FDI.Based on above analysis, we suggest using the "conception of scientific development" as a guiding ideology to promote the level of FDI in Jiangsu. (1) we should set up a scientific conception of using FDI, (2) we should restructure the strategy of using FDI, (3) we should improve the policy of using FDI. Some idea is aim for solving the four core problem, such as strengthen the competitiveness of market so as to guide the technology spillover of MNCs and raise autonomous technological innovation ability of home company. Enlarge the openness of market to use more FDI in service industry. Extend industrial chain and develop industry cluster to help transition and upgrading of processing trade. Overall regional FDI distribution, works hard to cultivate some economic growth area where have dense FDI, well combination of internal and external capital and strong power to bring prosperity for whole Jiangsu province.更多还原