【作者】 冯剑丰；

【导师】 王洪礼；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工程力学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 在过去的 20 年中，由于沿海经济的高速发展，海洋富营养化状况日益严重，赤潮发生的频率、影响规模都在不断扩大。探索赤潮的形成机理，对于预测预报赤潮、减少赤潮的损害十分关键。本文采用多学科交叉的方法，对赤潮藻类的生态系统动力学以及赤潮的预测预警进行了研究。具体研究工作如下：1、为了解渤海的典型赤潮藻类以及其生态环境状况，2001 年到 2003 年连续三年对渤海湾生态理化因子进行了监测，特别是 2003 年 5 月到 9 月，对渤海湾的赤潮监控区进行了高密度的监测（一周一次），并对渤海湾赤潮藻类生态状况进行了评价。2、针对渤海的典型藻类及其生长特性，建立了夜光藻、硅藻的多种群赤潮生态模型，中肋骨条藻的生物链模型，运用现代非线性动力学分岔混沌理论，判断了方程解的动力学稳定性，求出了导致方程发生 Hopf 分岔的环境因子关键值，并考虑了高等动物捕食对模型非线性动力学行为的影响。3、基于渤海湾的生态环境因子的监测数据，运用主成分分析及多元逐步回归，得到了影响渤海湾赤潮藻类生长的主导因子，并建立了多元回归预测方程。4、综合人工神经网络、模糊逻辑、专家系统以及赤潮生物动力学预测模型，提出了渤海赤潮的预测系统方案。本论文得到了教育部科学技术研究重点项目和天津市科技发展计划研究项目的资助。更多还原

【Abstract】 The last two decades have been marked by a new appreciation of the seriousimpacts of the marine phenomena we now call harmful algal blooms. Theseoccurrences of HABs represent a significant and seemingly expanding threat tohuman health, fishery resources, and marine ecosystems throughout the world. Tounderstand the critical features and mechanisms underlying the populaiton dynamicsof HAB species in a variety of oceanographic regimes are essential to predict andmitigate the red tides. In this paper, an interdisciplinary approach is used in the research of harmuflalgal dynamical model and predication. The detailed research work is as follows: 1. From 2001 to 2003, we monitored the physical, chemical, and biologicalfactors that affect the ocuurrence of HABs. Especially in May~Sep. 2003, a highfrequency monitor project was carried in Bohai bay. Last we appaised the HABscecosystem of Boahai bay. 2. Based on a Noctiluca scintillans-diatom-nutrient HABs model, using modernnonlinear theory, we analyzed the stability of the model’s steady states. Then throughnumerical simulation we get the values of a at Hopf bifurcation points. Finally wediscussed the bifurcation behaviors and stability of the model equations byconsidering the predation of zooplankton. 3. Based on the data of harmful algal and environmental factors in Bohai bay,using principal component analysis and multivariate stepwise regression, the decisivefactors which affected the abundance of phytoplankton are got. Then a MSRforecasting equation is constructed, and the result is good. 4. Considering ANN, FL, expert system and HABs dynamical model, wesupposed a prototype of HABs prediction and early-warning system.更多还原