【作者】 陈清；

【导师】 乞建勋；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 技术经济及管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 开放的电力市场中，电网经营企业面临着各种各样的风险。论文首先介 绍了风险的概念、风险分析的方法和风险管理的措施。详细分析和论述了电 网经营企业面临的各种风险。基于湖南省岳阳地区电力市场的实际情况和多 年历史数据，采用定性分析和定量计算的手段具体分析了负荷、自备电厂发 电量和上网电量预测不确定性以及自备电厂的大量增加给电网企业带来的 经济性风险和安全性风险。无论是长期还是短期，阻塞不仅会对电网造成直 接风险，还可能造成间接风险。论文使用概率、数理统计等方法来量化了阻 塞风险。零售电价的制定方法和市场交易模式的选择也是电网经营企业产生 风险的领域。根据风险的性质，论文将上述风险分为外部风险和内部风险， 提出了有针对性的管理措施和建议，并提出了风险分层管理的概念。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the deregulated power market，the power grid operator is facing many uncertainty and risks．Risk concept，risk analysis approach and risk management are introduced．In Chapter II，the maj or risks of grid operators is analyzed and evaluated in details．Based on the real situation and data of Yueyang City,Hunan Province，the economic risk resulting from the uncertainty of load prediction of whole system，generation capacity and parallel quantity of the large enterprises self-owned power plant are analyzed．Meanwhile，the increase of large enterprises self-owned power plant may cause economic and security risks．Considering different risk，the qualitmive and quantitative approaches are respectively adopted．The direct and indirect congestion risks are evaluated based on probabilistic theory and decision theory．The retail pricing and trade modes are major areas embracing risks as well．Chapter III divides the risks in internal and external ones based on the characteristics of risk and put forward the layered risk management approach．更多还原