中国金融波动研究

【作者】 贾彦东；

【导师】 聂富强；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 统计学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 金融改革滞后于经济改革构成所谓中国经济市场化次序过程中的“中国之迷”。如何衡量中国改革开放以来金融发展的全貌，如何理解中国金融发展与经济增长之间的关系，已经越来越成为众多学者讨论的焦点。尽管目前对于中国经济变迁中的金融发展还缺乏足够透彻的历史性认识，然而承认金融与经济增长的相互影响、相互促进关系以及完善有效的金融发展有利于整体经济的增长，已基本上得到了理论与实际的认同。纵观各种不同的研究路径，我们可以发现，陏于学者们对经济理论或经济历史所持有的哲学偏好，多数的宏观研究均偏重于如何将金融整体发展更好的融入于经济增长、经济发展的框架中来。虽然其中不乏将金融发展作为整体，从金融系统本身进行考虑的先例，可其中大多数均仍在前人的构架中徘徊。我们并不想否定这种研究，毕竟相对于金融系统来说经济的增长、人均福利的提高对于我们更有实际意义。但毫无疑问的是随着经济的逐步开放，世界经济一体化的形成和加剧，金融的运行与发展也正在发生着巨大的变化。金融工具的创新、金融业务的复杂、金融机构的交叉重叠发展、金融市场规模增大及金融政策的变化都使我们的金融相对于实体经济发展的独立性日益增强。特别是在全球范围内的数次大的金融危机爆发之后，不同制度背景下金融发展的失调给经济发展带来的负面影响更引起了经济学者的重视和研究。因此，单一的将金融系统发展从属于经济发展的研究框架已经不能够适应今后发展的需要，金融与经济的相互性、金融系统自身规律性的研究以及如何正确看待这种可能存在的规律性就显得日益重要。作为经济系统的一部分，金融与经济之间的关系可谓“扑朔迷离”，明确区分二者的变化也较为困难。但作为一个系统，其各种变化必定存在着某种外在的表现，而金融系统这种外在的数量和质量上的变化（或称之为“波动”）就为我们寻找金融系统自身运行规律，分析金融系统整体波动与经济增长、经济发展之间的关系提供了独特<WP=4>的视角与突破口，本文有关金融波动的分析即是在以上的思路中逐步展开的。一、分析视角从对金融波动的认识出发，中国金融波动是市场力量、政府力量及其他力量综合作用的过程，是一个政府的不断退出与市场不断进入的过程。由于金融巨大外部性与巨大收益性的存在，各种力量相互冲突、升降变化，从而决定了金融波动的方向与水平。对这种金融变化与金融波动的描述和分析是有别于已有的传统研究的。不同力量对金融波动的作用方式与作用机制上存在着明显的差异，尤其是政府与市场力量的对比，突出的表现为金融发展过程中的金融总量与金融结构的变化。因此，本文对金融波动的认识与描述也主要从这两个方面予以展开。二、研究视角对金融波动的描述与分析，应该在大的经济与金融制度变迁的视角下进行展开。但仅对总量层面或局部问题的分析，对于窥探广义金融波动的全貌，并从中寻求规律是远远不够的。因此本文在分析过程中采用多角度、多方法相结合，动态分析与静态分析相结合，整体分析与局部分析相结合等方式力图能够准确、全面的反映中国的金融波动，有利于经济金融政策的制定和实施。三、研究方法本文将在结合运用多种现代统计学与计量经济学分析方法的基础之上，从不同的角度对金融波动的特点与结构关系、金融波动的地区差异与联动效应、金融波动与经济波动的关系等命题进行实证分析，以期对金融波动的规律性、经济与金融相互关系给予较为全面的认识。四、文章结构在对金融发展、金融波动、金融与经济关系的有关研究进行逻辑上的梳理之后，本文将按照金融波动是否存在，如果存在如何进行衡量，金融波动的特点如何，如何正确看待金融的波动，其实际意义如何这样的逻辑顺序进行讨论与分析。本文的结构安排如下： <WP=5>第二章对金融发展问题的有关研究以及经济波动与金融波动的有关研究进行理论回顾与逻辑上的梳理。第三章对金融波动的存在性及衡量方式进行讨论，并应用构建的指标体系对中国的金融波动进行了衡量，为进一步的分析金融波动奠定基础；第四章中，我们将对广义金融波动的内部与外部的结构关系以及中国各地区的金融波动特点进行一定的描述与分析。对于金融波动的区域联动效应与波动的趋同性进行了简单的验证。第五章我们以经济增长为背景，运用现代计量经济学有关技术，对经济波动与金融波动之间的静态与动态关系进行实证分析，并得到实证结论。从而提出应该以经济增长为背景客观看待中国金融波动的观点。第六章，我们将对中国金融波动进行一定的制度性解释，并对金融波动研究的若干政策启示进行归纳。通过对中国金融波动的描述与分析，我们试图对以下问题进行尝试性的回答：中国经济长期高速增长过程中，总体的金融波动是否存在？对其进行数量化的描述是否可能，如果可能如何衡量？对于可能存在的金融波动或金融发展的变动，其具有怎样的特点、结构如何、其变化的过程应怎样解释？如何正确的分析金融波动的规律，如何正确的看待金融波动以及金融波动与经济波动的关系？正确分析金融总体波动，对于政府主导下金融发展有何政策意?更多还原

【Abstract】 The lag of financial reform and economic reform is regarded as the “conundrums” of China’s economy market-oriented order. How to weigh China’s financial developments since the reform and opening up to the outside world? How to comprehend the relationship between financial development and economy growth? These questions are not only the great theoretical questions that China faces at present during social development, but also do the realistic problems need to be solved urgently.Though we still lack enough historical understanding in China’s financial development at present, the acknowledgement of mutual affection and promotion between finance and economy, and the positive function of effective financial developments to the whole economy growth are approved basically.Take a wide view of various methods of studies, we can discover, because of holding philosophy preference in respect of economic theories or economic history, most macro study lay particular emphasis on how to make financial developments merge in the frame of economic growth and economic development.Though there are some precedents which regard financial development as a whole, most of others still wander in forefathers’ framework. We do not deny this kind of research, however, economic growth, improvement of the per capita welfare have more practical meanings to us. Without doubt, with the development of the economy’s opening gradually, and the form and aggravation of economic integration of the world, financial development has changed enormously. The innovation of financial tool, the complication of financial transactions, overlapping development of financial institutions, and the increase in <WP=7>financial market scale and the changes of financial policies all make our finance more independent of the development of the entity economy. Especially after the financial crisis, negative effects which imbalance brings to economic development and finance independence have obtained economic scholar’s attention. Therefore, a research frame which makes financial system subordinated to economic development can not already meet the needs of development in the future financial systematic developments. The study of the reciprocity of finance and economy, and the regularity of financial system and how to treat such regularity correctly are increasingly important. As a part of economic system, the relationship between finance and economy is “complicated”. To distinguish these changes is also difficult. But as a system, its different changes must have some external demonstration , moreover, such quantity and quality changes provide us an unique angle of view with which we can find the regularity of financial system movements ,analyze the relationship between fluctuation of the whole financial system and economic growth. The analysis concerned to finance fluctuation is launched as the following.First, the analysis perspectiveSetting out from the understanding of finance fluctuation, China’s finance fluctuation is a course of the market strength, synthesizing function of government strength and other strength. It is a course where government withdraws and enters market constantly. Because there are enormous externalities and enormous revenues, strengths conflicting, going up and down, they determine the direction and degree of the financial fluctuation. It is different from existing traditional studies. The obvious difference lies in the method on the way and the mechanism of financial fluctuation where these different factors act on, especially the government’s regulation compared with the market factor. It is shown as <WP=8>the fluctuation changes of financial total amount and financial structure during the financial evolution. So, this thesis is launch from these two respects mainly.Secondly, research perspectiveThe description and analyses of financial fluctuation should be launched from the perspective of great economy and monetary system transform. But the analysis of the total amount or the some problems,更多还原